As Sudan approaches its third year of civil war, the dynamics are suddenly shifting. Sudan’s military, which launched a major offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in September, made swift progress in Gezira state, and in recent days has abruptly and unexpectedly regained ground in Khartoum.
Whether it has truly turned the tide – as key backers appear to believe – has yet to be seen. Even if the capital can be fully retaken and secured, reconstructing the devastated city would be an immense task. The RSF might well entrench themselves elsewhere; this may further spur their ferocity in the western region of Darfur. Meaningful negotiations between the warring parties look even more distant. There is still less prospect of a return to civilian politics, overthrown in a coup by the partnership of the army chief, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF leader, Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – known as Hemedti – before they turned on each other.
