According to Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vučić, the country’s recent parliamentary elections were the “cleanest and most honest” in its history. They were also a triumph for his misnamed Serbian Progressive party (SNS), which won by a landslide. But the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe had a different take.
The 17 December poll, said a statement by its international observer team, took place in “unjust conditions”, marred by “bias in the media, pressure on public sector employees and misuse of public resources”. Instances of intimidation and “serious irregularities” including vote-buying and ballot-stuffing were noted. Other allegations have been made that Bosnian Serbs were bussed-in en masse to fraudulently vote in Belgrade.
Flouting of democratic norms and the rule of law in Serbia has gradually accelerated since the SNS took power over a decade ago – a textbook process of state capture, overseen by the president since 2017. An autocratic nationalist whose political instincts were forged in the Milošević era, Mr Vučić also uses his power and influence to foment discord in the western Balkans, where secessionist ethnic Serb campaigns are supported by Belgrade. But the ambition to draw Serbia within the EU’s orbit – and away from Russian influence – has muted western criticism to a compromising degree, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine.
This emollient approach may soon run out of road. Days of demonstrations have followed the disputed elections, building on a burgeoning anti-Vučić protest movement that began in the summer. Last weekend, tens of thousands gathered at a Belgrade square also used to oppose Slobodan Milošević’s rule, and called for a largely silent Europe to back their cause. In a sign of where the government’s instinctive sympathies lie, Mr Vučić’s prime minister, Ana Bnrabić, thanked Russia for providing supposed evidence that the protests were orchestrated in the west.
Intimations of renewed regional conflict promise to force a tougher line in Brussels and Washington. In November, Mr Vučić ominously predicted that 2024 will bring “much more conflict and unrest” in both Kosovo and Republika Srpska – the ethnic Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina. In the latter, the separatist Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, has threatened to rip up the 1995 Dayton peace agreement in the name of Serb national unification. In Kosovo – whose independence Belgrade continues to refuse to recognise – serious outbreaks of conflict in the ethnically Serb north have raised fears of a future secession attempt.
Hopes that the prospect of EU membership would persuade Serbia’s government to abide by democratic norms at home, and refrain from undermining neighbouring states, have proved unfounded. But the strategic goal of isolating Russia – also unfulfilled – means that the west continues to allow Mr Vučić too much licence to pursue his authoritarian, ethno-nationalist agenda.
As one of the chief investors in Serbia’s growing economy, the EU is viewed favourably by much of the population and has economic and diplomatic leverage to deploy if it chooses. Up to now it has opted not to do so, through an understandable fear – shared by Joe Biden’s administration – of leaving the Balkans even more open to the influence of Moscow and Beijing. But as he entrenches himself still further in the EU’s eastern backyard, treating Mr Vučić as a kind of prodigal son who will eventually mend his ways is not working.
