For years, long before his election to Sri Lanka’s presidency, Gotabaya Rajapaksa inspired fear. His own family nicknamed him “the terminator”, but his reputation for ruthlessness extended beyond politics. As defence secretary during his brother Mahinda’s presidency, from 2005 to 2015, he oversaw the defeat of the Tamil Tigers; an estimated 40,000 Tamils died and there were numerous documented cases of unlawful killings and forced disappearances. Human Rights Watch alleges that he is implicated in war crimes. As president, he oversaw a sharp deterioration in human rights.
Now the jubilant scenes of protesters plunging into his swimming pool and rifling through drawers of underwear as they stormed the presidential palace last weekend have shown that anger has driven out the fear. The Rajapaksa family ruled for too long, and primarily, in the eyes of many Sri Lankans, for themselves. (Basil Rajapaksa, another brother, resigned as finance minister in April.) The president has promised to quit on Wednesday. Even an attempt to leave the country first – which would mean he is outside its borders when he loses presidential immunity – was foiled when immigration officers blocked him at the airport. The military has shown little interest in defending him.
The protests over Sri Lanka’s devastating economic crisis, the worst since it gained its independence in 1948, began in March and were reinvigorated by activists last month. A quarter of the population do not know where their next meal is coming from, World Food Programme officials say. In June, food inflation stood at over 80% year on year. The prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe (who has also pledged to resign), told parliament baldly that the economy had “completely collapsed”. He has warned that the country could run out of rice by September. Things will only get worse, since many farmers did not plant crops because they could not afford seed or fertiliser.
Covid devastated the economy, further hitting a tourist trade already badly damaged by 2019’s Easter bombings, which killed 269 people following disastrous police and intelligence failures. The crisis was worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; in addition to the effect on fuel costs, the two countries were major sources of tourists. But underlying all this was the Rajapaksas’ disastrous mismanagement over the years, ranging from white-elephant infrastructure projects to last year’s abrupt decision to ban fertilisers, causing harvests to slump.
Its position in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes has ensured it plenty of friends, with India and China both cutting deals. Sri Lanka is now pinning its hopes on an IMF bailout. Whoever takes over faces a brutal economic situation, raising the prospect of a series of unstable governments and of broader fracturing in a country with deep ethnic and social divisions, which has already endured so much violence. The kind of themes that might unite the public – greater fairness, tackling corruption – run against the interests of the political elite.
The dramatic turn against the Rajapaksas is a warning to governments everywhere of the dangers they face as food and fuel prices soar; protests are breaking out around the world. Even as Sri Lankans stormed the palace in Colombo last Saturday, thousands were in the streets of Tirana, Albania. The public’s rejection of the family should be especially salutary to leaders who have relied upon patronage and authoritarianism rather than attempting to answer real needs. A reputation for ruthlessness is not enough.
