North Korea is unique in turning a putatively communist state into a dynastic system now in its third generation. So while the proposition that Kim Jong-un’s teenage daughter will inherit power is sparking debate, unexpected political transitions are not entirely new. On Monday, South Korea’s intelligence agency said that it had “credible” information that Kim Ju-ae is positioned as her father’s successor. Its briefing to legislators in Seoul followed appearances alongside her father highlighting her military credentials – including driving a tank – and months of rhetorical inflation, with state media describing her as “a great person of guidance”.
The Mount Paektu bloodline – linking the family to a sacred mountain seen as the mythical origin of the Korean people – is championed in North Korean propaganda. Yet, given that Ju-ae is around 13 and her father only 42, talk of succession appears wildly premature. Very little is known about her: her exact age is uncertain; she may in fact be called Ju-hae – North Korean media does not name her; and she may have two siblings, possibly boys.
Many believe that the patriarchal norms of North Korea preclude her becoming leader, though a few women have senior positions, and that her inability to continue the (male) bloodline would be another obstacle. They believe that her prominence has other functions, including softening her father’s image, preparing the ground for another family succession and grabbing more attention for North Korea’s military technology. The previous heirs were kept out of the spotlight for far longer. An elder brother may be being groomed for leadership behind the scenes, protecting him and preventing split loyalties.
But whoever takes over, North Korea is not simply a family dictatorship. The political system was built around those close to Kim Il-sung, the founding leader; their descendants still hold power and now prosper from the economy too. The Kim family cult, signalling continuity and stability, has served the elite as a whole.
The reverence has inevitably waned over the generations. The repression imposed by the state persists, but its ability to provide for the people dissolved decades ago. Disaffected citizens have no way to challenge the brutal regime, but it is taking no chances: it has cracked down on foreign media which might allow young people to glimpse brighter possibilities outside the country (though recovering trade with China may provide some exposure). Recently, it has been strengthened by Russia’s need for arms and personnel for the war in Ukraine – which has also pushed China to bolster relations.
It is the exploitation and misery of millions of North Koreans that funds the comfortable lifestyle of the ruling families and the weapons programmes which help them to survive. In 2014, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that the leadership was committing abuses unparalleled in the modern world. Two-fifths of the population is undernourished and, within families, women receive less and worse-quality food. They have been hit particularly hard by tightened controls on markets. And parents of teenagers, including girls, are increasingly fearful of conscription as growing numbers of school leavers are listed and soldiers are deployed overseas.
The prominence of one young girl will do nothing to help others. Ju-ae’s high profile is best understood not as a startling departure from the norm, but an affirmation and reinforcement of the grim status quo.
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