Welsh politics is turning a significant page. Labour’s Mark Drakeford, who announced his resignation this week, has spent five years as first minister of Wales alongside Conservative UK governments in Westminster. His Labour successor, who is expected to be chosen by March, will be hoping to work alongside a Keir Starmer-led Labour administration instead.
The timing of Mr Drakeford’s announcement confirms that Labour wants the Welsh succession sorted before the next UK general election. It may also imply that Sir Keir does not want the election in Wales to be dominated by Labour’s mixed record under Mr Drakeford. The outgoing first minister’s popularity has dipped recently, so a new Welsh Labour leader would be less of an election target for rival parties.
Mr Drakeford, like his mentor Rhodri Morgan in 2009, is leaving power at a time of his own choosing. That is a rare achievement. No UK prime minister since Harold Wilson has managed it. Mr Drakeford is doing it after an exceptionally turbulent five years marked by notable downs as well as ups. His modest and careful manner conceals a notably effective operator.
When he became first minister in 2018, Mr Drakeford expected Brexit to dominate his leadership. In reality, it was to be Covid that did so. The pandemic gave him a national profile that not even the charismatic Mr Morgan ever rivalled. The contrast between the reckless Boris Johnson and the meticulous Welsh leader could not have been greater either, and proved overwhelmingly to Mr Drakeford’s political advantage. He did not do everything well during Covid but, in 2021, he led Welsh Labour to a near record result in the Senedd elections.
By last week, however, the proportion of Welsh voters who thought he was doing a good job had fallen from 54% in September 2022 to 31%. The Welsh government is having to make spending cuts to support the country’s struggling health and transport systems. NHS waiting times and the recent Pisa educational achievement surveys show Wales lagging behind England. The 20mph limit in most built-up areas has been attacked as a dogmatic priority amid Wales’s current economic hardship. Although Mr Drakeford’s avuncular style was admired, not just in Wales, he is also criticised for his inflexibility and for not listening to others.
The most significant lesson of the Drakeford years is the seemingly inevitable fragility of devolution when rival parties are in power in London and Cardiff. Unlike the Conservatives in London or the SNP in Scotland, Mr Drakeford actually wanted to make devolution work. He found no partner for that in London. Mr Johnson and Liz Truss were downright contemptuous. Theresa May and Rishi Sunak had other priorities.
This would presumably change if Labour wins the UK election next year. Even though the Starmer Labour party and the generally more leftwing Welsh Labour have important differences, they will clearly work together. Where this leaves UK devolution in the decades to come is not clear. The amended 1998 settlement continues to function – though not in Northern Ireland. Yet it remains an uphill effort and it has not brought the UK much closer together, if at all.
