The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is expected this week to press ahead with plans to make it harder for migrants to gain settled status, extending the wait from five to 10 years. She will not change tack despite Labour’s crushing byelection defeat to the Greens. This is a mistake.
Ms Mahmood argues that Denmark’s Social Democrats curbed inflows to protect the welfare state and won at the ballot box. A general election in Denmark later this month will test whether that policy remains popular. Her recent visit to Copenhagen kept the spotlight on asylum, the most politically charged part of the UK system. Yet asylum flows are a small fraction of overall migration and largely disconnected from the labour shortages that undergird Britain’s economic debate. Public concern about migration is real – shaped by pressures on housing, services and wages. But pollsters say that this is disproportionately driven by Reform UK supporters, who worry substantially more about immigration than voters backing far-right parties in Europe. That suggests that the politics of migration is more complex than headlines imply.
