In January, only two months after becoming Conservative party leader, Kemi Badenoch let it be known that she would not be reshuffling her shadow cabinet team before the next election. This implausible hostage to fortune was doubtless intended to convey Mrs Badenoch’s determination that, as she rebuilt the Tory brand after a catastrophic defeat, she would not be buffeted around by passing events.
Modern British politics don’t work like that. A year ago, the Conservative share of the vote was 24%, a desperate general election nadir. Now support for the party languishes at about 17%. In May’s local elections the Tories lost close to 700 councillors and control of 16 councils, many of them to Reform UK, which leads in the polls and is viewed by Labour as its chief electoral threat. A recent survey found that only 10% of the public think Mrs Badenoch looks like a prime minister in waiting. On Tuesday, as the House of Commons went into summer recess, she duly launched a reshuffle.
