The wave of Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon on Sunday morning, and the hundreds of drones and rockets launched soon afterwards by Hezbollah, was the biggest exchange of hostilities across Israel’s northern border since the Hamas attacks of 7 October. As Gaza ceasefire negotiations continue to stall, and the appalling Palestinian death toll in that territory surpasses 40,000, the nightmare scenario of a regional war encompassing Lebanon and involving Hezbollah’s patron, Iran, remains frighteningly possible.
For now at least, despite the weekend’s reciprocal show of force, all parties appear keen to avoid such an outcome. In the brutal choreography that governs Israel’s relations with Hezbollah, Sunday’s attack will have been factored in by Jerusalem following Israel’s assassination of one of the organisation’s top commanders last month. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, emphasised that a decision had been taken not to risk Israeli civilian casualties in the assault, which targeted military locations and the Mossad spy base near Tel Aviv.
