In 2002, divisions on the left allowed Jean-Marie Le Pen to shock France by reaching the run-off in that year’s presidential election. Lionel Jospin, the defeated Socialist candidate in the poll, would subsequently recall the humiliation to remind progressives of the need for unity in the face of the far-right threat. Mr Jospin’s death, announced on Monday, has overshadowed the weekend’s local election results. But as they are pored over for clues to a seismic presidential contest that Le Pen’s daughter, Marine, believes she can win next year, it is clear that alliances – or their absence – will shape that race too.
In Paris and Marseille, Socialist candidates won handsome mayoral victories at the head of a broad left grouping that included Greens and Communists, but not Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left France Unbowed party (LFI). Emmanuel Grégoire’s second-round victory in Paris was particularly impressive, given that it was achieved against both a united right opposition and the LFI candidate, who refused to stand down. Outside the biggest conurbations, however, progressive outcomes were less stellar. Traditional strongholds such as the city of Clermont Ferrand, where Socialists and Greens made local alliances with Mr Mélenchon’s party, were lost to a mildly resurgent centre-right.
For its part, Ms Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party (RN) failed to achieve the trophy wins that it coveted in southern cities such as Marseille and Toulon. But the success of the conservative candidate in Nice, Éric Ciotti, who was backed by the RN after leading calls to “unite the right” ahead of the presidential election, may tempt others to abandon the “republican front” that has thwarted its ambitions. Ms Le Pen and the RN’s president, Jordan Bardella, could also point to breakthroughs in smaller towns.
After much fatalistic talk of deepening polarisation, these results suggest a more complex political landscape. Ms Le Pen and Mr Bardella can count on support from swathes of disillusioned provincial France, and are putting down roots across the south. And as Emmanuel Macron’s presidency draws to a close after two terms, France is certainly divided and fractious. But the demise of Macronism, which hollowed out mainstream parties, offers opportunities to both the centre-left and centre-right. In the country’s three biggest cities, the Socialists and Greens hold sway, while Les Républicains are reviving in more prosperous towns. Meanwhile, LFI continues to dominate in the banlieues and do well among the university-educated young.
Presidential elections, culminating in a second-round head-to-head between two candidates, deliver clarity rather than nuance. Given the national polls, one of the final two in 2027 is overwhelmingly likely to be Mr Bardella or – if she can overturn a conviction for embezzlement and ban on holding elected office – Ms Le Pen. Keeping either out of the Élysée will depend on Les Républicains holding on to voters tempted by the siren calls of the far right, and the capacity of the left to unite around a candidate with a broad appeal encompassing the post-Macron centre ground.
Mr Jospin’s strictures remain as relevant as ever. But though the divisive Mr Mélenchon has outperformed less radical rivals in presidential contests (without ever coming close to actually winning one), he is not that unifying candidate. The most significant take-away from Sunday’s polls may be that progressive forces won, and won well, without him.
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