This week’s local elections in England find the two great parties of the 20th century locked in slow‑motion collapse, as a surging populist right, resurgent liberals and a fragmented progressive left scramble for survival. Labour may have won last year’s general election, but it is haemorrhaging enthusiasm. The Conservatives are debating whether their best chance lies in negotiating with Nigel Farage, who is feeding on their weakness. English politics isn’t shaking so much as crumbling, too busy fighting itself to notice.
The polls could yet be wrong, but that looks unlikely. The narrative may be set by a crucial byelection in Runcorn and Helsby, where Reform UK is riding voter anger and is the favourite to overturn Labour’s 14,700 majority. Even a close result would be small comfort for the governing party. The gamble of Labour’s election guru, Morgan McSweeney, was to chase a thin sliver of the party’s Reform-minded voters. But this risks alienating the party’s progressive base, while failing to win over those already lost.
