When settling wars rewards lawlessness, displaces populations and fuels lasting grievances, the result is more war. That was the former foreign secretary William Hague’s verdict on Donald Trump’s approach to peacemaking, drawing lessons from the Balkans, the second world war and the Middle East. A more insecure world will require Britain to increase defence spending. The UK currently could not sustain major troop deployments in Ukraine, undermining the idea it could provide Kyiv with “security guarantees”.
This is a dilemma faced across Europe, leading the EU to see deficit-financed defence spending as the answer. In contrast, Britain remains seemingly bound by economic orthodoxy, prioritising fiscal discipline over borrowing. The UK Treasury has apparently asked unprotected public services – excluding health, education and defence – to prepare for real-terms cuts of up to 11% ahead of June’s spending review, as funds are diverted to the military. This would be a mistake.
