“As I became more famous, I was sure my life became safer … It would be problematic for them just to kill me,” Alexei Navalny once told a film-maker, drily adding: “I was very wrong.”
Yet the official announcement of the death of the 47-year-old, who remained Vladimir Putin’s most prominent opponent even from behind bars, was profoundly shocking. Many feared he would die in the notoriously brutal Arctic penal colony where he was incarcerated. Fewer expected it so soon or so suddenly, perhaps because of his apparently indomitable spirit. He seemed in reasonably good health, though gaunt, when he spoke via video link to a court hearing on Thursday, and cheerfully mocked the system.
According to officials, he “fell ill after a walk” on Friday. The official investigation is unlikely to shed more convincing light on his abrupt death. Supporters and western officials were quick to call it murder, whether fast or slow: the lasting effects of the 2020 novichok poisoning, which left him in a coma, were followed by mistreatment in prison.
Mr Navalny’s humour, charisma and energy won him support among young Russians, along with his hugely popular videos alleging staggering levels of corruption in Mr Putin’s circle – and then exploring his own poisoning. But he now appears, in a sense, typical: he is the latest in a long line of critics and dissidents whose lives have ended prematurely, at home or abroad. (There is ongoing concern for another jailed activist, Vladimir Kara-Murza, who has said he has survived two poisoning attempts.) Exile would have been no guarantee of safety, but returning after treatment for the novichok attack was an act of immense courage.
The ruthless and extensive silencing of opposition has ensured that the outcome of next month’s election is not in doubt. Mr Putin is already the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin and has rewritten constitutional rules so that he could maintain power until 2036. There is little to constrain him. He believes the tide is turning in his favour in Ukraine. The US looks tired, weak and divided, and Trumpists fawn over him. Donald Trump has said he would “encourage” Russia to attack Nato countries that have not met their spending pledge. He is unlikely to be troubled by Joe Biden’s 2021 warning that Mr Navalny’s death in prison would be likely to have devastating consequences for Russia.
In the past, the death of Kremlin critics was followed by outrage abroad, but limited action. The challenge this time is different: the Russian president is already sanctioned to the hilt and indicted by the international criminal court over Ukraine, though this may increase discussion of handing frozen Russian assets to Kyiv. States which did not turn on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine are unlikely to shift because of Mr Navalny’s death.
While the grief and pain are of course felt foremost by his family and friends, this is a bleak moment for his nation. His death underscores the apparent futility of challenging the status quo. Yet it also highlights the rottenness at the heart of the regime. Following the crackdown in Russia, his team has continued fighting for their cause from abroad. Before Mr Navalny’s return to his homeland, the same film-maker recorded the activist’s message for supporters: that should he be killed, “You are not allowed to give up.”
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