The major tax bill that Republicans hope to pass through the House later this week will require the federal government to borrow more heavily for the next five years, while postponing spending cuts and other deficit-reducing measures until 2028 or beyond.
In many cases, those future spending cuts and tax increases are unlikely to ever materialize. Instead, they seem meant to manipulate the calculations done by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other independent entities that assess the budgetary impact of legislation.
Even with those gimmicks included in the bill, however, the CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add more than $2.3 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. The bill would increase borrowing by more than $400 billion in each of the next four years—topping out at nearly $600 billion in new borrowing in 2027.
