There is a saying, "When the US economy sneezes, the emerging markets get a cold." The global economy now may be more complex: it is more resilient in terms of where new economic growth emerges, but more vulnerable in terms of risk emanating from the United States, but also in China, and in sites of conflict and geopolitical competition.
Inflation is the immediate risk, but the outlook for shared global growth looks more uneven as the traditional drivers of innovation and investment from the West now face a prolonged demographic decline, coupled with rising nationalist sentiment, and protectionist trade and industrial policies.
