Ever since ChatGPT burst onto the scene in November 2022, predictions of an AI-fueled jobs apocalypse have dominated headlines: Some studies blame the technology for drying up entry-level roles, while others warn it will eventually replace all of us.
Especially alarming to many has been AI’s effect on entry-level jobs. A blockbuster Stanford study in August was especially rattling, as it claimed to find a “significant and disproportionate impact” on entry-level jobs most exposed to AI automation—like software development and customer service—which have seen steep relative declines in employment. This came out close to the MIT study that said 95% of generative AI pilots were failing and the somewhat sudden realization that AI could be building toward a bubble. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees something going on, commenting that “kids coming out of college and younger people, minorities, are having a hard time finding jobs.”
But according to a new study from Yale and Brookings researchers, these instances are “lightning strikes,” as opposed to “house fires.” The U.S. labor market just isn’t showing any signs of broad, AI-driven disruption, at least not yet.
