I am not surprised that Wayne Pivac has changed half the side for the final match of the Six Nations. Third place in the table is a possibility, but it is not in Wales’ control.
This is his chance to reinvigorate the team. I suspect there are differing motivations behind the changes, sentimental ones for bringing back Alun Wyn Jones to win his 150th cap in front of his home crowd. Injuries and fatigue have enforced other changes and the search for more penetration and potency behind the rest.
It seems clear that the coaches are not convinced of the make-up of the backline. They cannot settle on a centre partnership and they have not found a combination that delivers their vision on the field. Wales were at their best from set-piece moves against France but once they got beyond three phases they lost shape and momentum and had to kick the ball away before the French defence took complete control.
Read more: Pivac explains why he's ripped up Wales team
Wales have not established their attacking structure in any of the Six Nations matches and Pivac and Stephen Jones have chosen to make changes in the personnel rather than develop those in the shirt. By their standards, Italy have had a much-improved tournament. They have played some excellent attacking rugby. They look to play with pace and width and in each of their matches they have put the opposition under pressure.
Italy and Wales have played the same opponents so far and they have only scored one fewer try than Pivac's team. But I expect this will be Italy’s toughest game of the championship. Away from home and at the end of an arduous campaign history suggests they struggle in this fixture.
They have conceded 24 tries in the preceding four matches, their defence has been porous throughout. This is Wales’ opportunity to pile up the points which I am confident they will do.
This has been another Six Nations that has seen Wales improve as the tournament has progressed. This is consistent with the Gatland era, and what the coaches identify as the reason for this is the time needed to improve the players' fitness and intensity moving from regional rugby to the international level.
It is universally accepted that there is a step up between the two, but in Wales that gap has become a chasm. Welsh regions are no longer competitive in Ireland. Winning away has always been difficult but it's not even close any more. We barely raise an eyebrow at a 40-point hammering against Munster, Leinster or Ulster.
It has become the norm to lose by 30 points in Scotland. With the Welsh regions languishing at the bottom of the URC table it is inconceivable that this is not impacting on the national side. It is borderline delusional to believe a Welsh region could win the Champions Cup, yet we expect the same players to pull on a red shirt and become world beaters.
This was similar in Gatland’s tenure but the gulf was never this vast. I accept that the current arrangements prioritise the international game to the disadvantage of the regions, but without drastic improvement in the standard of the regions it is inevitable that the pinnacle of the pyramid will be hit. What I find hard to understand, however, is why the fitness standards appear to require such radical work when players go from region to national squads.
Surely professional rugby players should not need intensive fitness training when they join up with Wales. It would also improve their regional results if they could play with more intensity for longer. The under-20s have also had a disappointing campaign suggesting there aren’t many of that squad ready to step up in the near future. The job list facing Nigel Walker is growing.
Providing Wales win comfortably on Saturday it has been an acceptable championship in terms of results. The emergence of Will Rowlands, Gareth Thomas and Dewi Lake have offered some depth to a previously paper thin front five. The back-row looks stacked with options of those competing to play either side of the imperious Taulupe Faletau.
There has been less to celebrate in the backs. Dan Biggar has been a faultless captain. His competitive nature undiminished with the added responsibility. He has proven yet again how influential and dominant he can be in tight tactical matches. I’m not sure there is anyone better in those circumstances.
Wales have been at their most competitive when it’s been an arm wrestle, the type of scrappy games that Gatland use to love. The solitary victory against Scotland being a prime example.
Ironically this is what Pivac is actively trying to move away from by searching for more fluidity and creativity. The dissonance between what Wales are good at compared to what they are trying to be is striking.
The current trend is for the spark to come from attacking fly-halves, Smith, Russell, Ntamack take the ball to the line and fix the defence. Biggar will win his 100th cap this weekend and of his many attributes, this is not his strongest suit. The dilemma facing Pivac is that he is trying to solve this conundrum by finding a centre partnership that can take over some of this role while keeping Biggar’s leadership and consistency at fly half
A comfortable win would be a welcome fillip for Wales and just reward for the effort of the last two months. The next true test will be in South Africa where Wales will need that elusive creativity if they are to challenge the Springboks.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi Rhyngwladol team. S4C’s coverage of Wales v Italy gets underway at 1.45pm on Saturday.
