Nobody likes to predict future failure. Yet in the NFL draft, we see high picks flame out all the time. This year, we saw 20 former first-round picks have their fifth-year options declined.
So which of the AFC picks surrounded by hype could be cautionary tales in the coming years? It’s time to take a hard look at not only the player but the team and situation, along with potential pitfalls out of their control.
And while we’ll talk about how things could go wrong for these five players, know that my colleague, Gilberto Manzano, sees it differently. If nothing else, we’ll have something to good-naturedly argue about for bragging rights during the season.
5. Tyree Wilson, DE, Raiders
Why he'll be a bust: This isn’t about the prospect, but rather the team. The Raiders have struggled consistently to draft well in the first round over recent years, including the selections of receiver Henry Ruggs III, guard Alex Leatherwood, safety Johnathan Abram, corner Damon Arnette, edge rusher Clelin Ferrell and others.
While this is a new regime under general manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels, there’s still an uncertainty if they can build after watching the Raiders sink from a playoff team in 2021 to a third-place group last year. Additionally, if Las Vegas struggles come autumn and owner Mark Davis decides to clean house, will a new coaching staff be as excited about Wilson if he has a slow start to his career?
Ultimately, Wilson should come in and play a decent amount of snaps as a rookie, but he’ll be part of a rotation with veterans Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones.
4. Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens
Why he'll be a bust: Flowers was the third receiver taken off the board in April’s draft, but there are reasons to wonder how this plays out.
The Ravens hadn’t taken a pair of first-round receivers since 2019 before Flowers, including Rashod Bateman and Hollywood Brown. Brown didn’t get through his rookie deal before being dealt to the Cardinals, while Bateman has played in a grand total of 18 games in two seasons, notching 800 yards.
In this year’s offense, Flowers could well be the third option with veteran Odell Beckham Jr. opposite him and tight end Mark Andrews working the middle. While Baltimore changed offensive coordinators from Greg Roman to Todd Monken and could become more pass-heavy, will it throw the ball enough for Flowers to be seriously involved?
Coach John Harbaugh is excellent, but there have been multiple misses on receivers with the Ravens, partially because the usage isn’t as much as with other teams.
3. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans
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Why he'll be a bust: Like most quarterbacks who are drafted high, Stroud is walking into one of the league’s more challenging situations. Unlike Anthony Richardson with the Colts and Bryce Young with the Panthers, Stroud is paired with a defensive-minded coach in first-year man DeMeco Ryans. Furthermore, his offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, is only 35 years old and hasn’t been a coordinator or position coach at any level.
Looking at the weapons is another red flag for Stroud. The Texans traded their best receivers earlier this offseason, sending Brandin Cooks to the Cowboys. Without Cooks, the depth chart is barren, headlined by third-round rookie Tank Dell and Nico Collins, Robert Woods and John Metchie III.
The good news? The AFC South is one of the worst divisions in football, and the edge rushers aren’t terrifying to play against, especially with Laremy Tunsil as your left tackle. The bad news? The AFC is loaded, and Stroud doesn’t have much experience surrounding him either on the field or the sideline.
2. Will McDonald IV, DE, Jets
Why he'll be a bust: Many believed the Jets would select a left tackle in the first round to pair with newly acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, when a run on tackles took that option away from New York, general manager Joe Douglas pivoted and went with McDonald, an Iowa State edge rusher who, while talented, also has concerns.
For starters, McDonald is one of the oldest rookies in the class at 23 (he turns 24 in June) after playing five years with the Cyclones. Then there’s the inconsistent production, which saw the Wisconsin native tally just five sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss last year. Yet in the previous two years, McDonald combined for 26 tackles for loss and 22 sacks. Which is the player New York is getting?
If the Jets can get a quality pass rusher in McDonald who adds to the presences of Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers and Carl Lawson, they’ll be thrilled. But that’s not a given.
1. Will Levis, QB, Titans
Why he'll be a bust: The only non-first-rounder on the list, Levis has to be included at the top. After falling completely out of the first round, the Titans took a chance on the Kentucky quarterback with the 33rd choice, hoping he can sit for a year behind Ryan Tannehill before taking the job in 2024.
With Levis, there is a litany of question marks. With the Wildcats, he threw for only 43 touchdowns against 23 interceptions, and that was after spending two years at Penn State, where he couldn’t get on the field despite the lackluster play ahead of him. Levis also isn’t much of a runner, credited with 72 attempts in 2022, which went for -107 yards. For his collegiate career, Levis ran for 742 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry.
Finally, who is surrounding Levis? The Titans are banking heavily on second-year receiver Treylon Burks and an aging running back in Derrick Henry, all while being behind a questionable offensive line. How much of that changes by the time Levis gets the starting nod?
