1) What is England’s best XV?
The Ashes is now over, clearing the way for an another intense selection debate. Steve Borthwick has finally had the chance to spend some proper time with his squad and build some sturdier foundations but England’s four warmup games against Wales (home and away), Ireland and Fiji offer a much-needed opportunity to test some vital combinations.
The results, within reason, are less important than some clear signs that England are growing in cohesion and confidence. For “Borthersball” to flourish, several key players have to stay fit and their head coach must show he is as good a selector as he is a tactical organiser. What is England’s most effective back-row combination, for example? Or centre pairing? Or back-three mix? What if they were to lose Owen Farrell, Jamie George or Maro Itoje to injury before the tournament, disrupting their experienced Saracens spine?
Borthwick’s most crucial decision is not so much his 33-man squad, to be named next Monday, than his best XV to play Argentina in the team’s defining pool game in Marseille on 9 September. Will this be the month that removes the rust from Courtney Lawes, Manu Tuilagi, Kyle Sinckler and Billy Vunipola or gives Theo Dan, Tom Pearson, Tom Willis and Henry Arundell a timely chance to shine?
2) How big a threat are Argentina?
The Pumas beat England last time out and should have beaten South Africa in Johannesburg at the weekend. They had already upset the Wallabies in Sydney and playing in Europe holds no fears for their senior pros. Their approach can give opponents a sniff at times but their defensive appetite, forward muscle and collective passion make them a seriously awkward opening weekend opponent for an English team still searching for their true selves.
Close to the line or over the ball there are few better hookers than Leicester’s Julián Montoya and in the back row Pablo Matera’s competitive edge is rubbing off on Juan Martín González and Santiago Grondona, now respectively of Saracens and Bristol. Add in the playmaking ability of Santiago Carreras, the twinkling feet of his Newcastle Falcons namesake Matteo Carreras, the proven threat of Juan Imhoff and the deadly goalkicking of Emiliano Boffelli and there is an argument that England may be second favourites in Marseille. The Pumas’ home game against the Springboks this weekend is another chance to reinforce that narrative.
3) Are the All Blacks reborn?
Maybe it was always destined to happen. As soon as New Zealand opted to move on from Ian Foster and anoint Scott Robertson as their head coach, the All Blacks have discovered a new lease of life. Unbeaten in their last 10 Tests and having scooped yet another Rugby Championship title, the only nagging question is a wearily familiar one. Have they peaked too soon?
The proof will be in the crème caramel but a grimly determined Foster has unquestionably responded positively to last year’s desperate home series defeat to Ireland. Elevating Jason Ryan to the position of forwards coach, in particular, has paid clear dividends in terms of New Zealand’s physicality. These days Scott Barrett is rivalling his brothers Jordie and Beauden as the most influential All Black in the family and there is a more purposeful look to the entire New Zealand operation. Aaron Smith is back humming again, Jordie Barrett is supplying straight-running strength at 12 and Will Jordan looks every inch a global superstar in the making. The opening fixture of next month’s tournament against host nation France will be a huge occasion.
4) Will France cope with the pressure?
Can you have too much of a good thing? There must be a few sore French bodies out there, with Toulouse having claimed their domestic Top 14 title only just over six weeks ago. Ladle on the feverish expectation of an entire nation and the vagaries of knockout rugby and nothing can be entirely guaranteed. Nor would it be a massive surprise if they look slightly mortal in Scotland this Saturday with a reshuffled side.
But then you remember who is coaching their defence. Shaun Edwards never did believe in fallow periods – “To rest is to rust” – and will be preaching the gospel of consistent application. He will also be keeping an eye on the Twickenham Friday-night rendezvous between South Africa and New Zealand on 25 August. Along with Ireland, it is the Springboks and the All Blacks (now back up to second in the World Rugby rankings) who seemingly pose the biggest threat to Gallic ambitions.
And what if their talisman Antoine Dupont pulls a hamstring on the opening night? Mentally these are tense days, culminating with a final warmup game against Australia in Paris on 27 August. The waiting game could be tricky but the key is delivering on the biggest stage.
5) Can Ireland escape their World Cup yips?
This may or may not be the moment to reiterate that Ireland have never advanced beyond the World Cup quarter-finals. Then again, they have never gone into the tournament as the world’s No 1 ranked side. The other major difference is their growing confidence under Andy Farrell, built on the bedrock of a series victory in New Zealand and a Six Nations grand slam last March. No longer is it a case of Ireland basing their game around a few totemic players; they now have platoons of them.
Conventional wisdom suggests they may well field a weakened team against England in Dublin on 19 August; on the other hand, they will need at least one full-bore examination before they head to France and asking all their first choice forwards to go full smash against a muscular Samoa in their final warmup fixture is an obvious risk. Johnny Sexton’s current suspension has also complicates matters but Ireland’s pool fixtures are nicely spaced and the veteran fly-half will be well rested for the decisive games against the Springboks and the Scots. It is at the quarter-final stage, though, that any semblance of a safety net disappears: two of Ireland, France, New Zealand and the Springboks will not make the final four.
6) Who will be the tournament surprise package?
The nervous whistling you can hear is coming from Australian and Welsh supporters. The Wallabies have lost all three of their Tests this year under Eddie Jones and the ruptured achilles suffered by captain Allan Ala’alatoa in Melbourne is the latest cruel blow. Wales have bid farewell to a number of their biggest names and are relying on youthful enthusiasm to bridge the gap.
Both of them are also keenly aware of what is heading towards them. Fiji are already reaping the rewards of an island-based Super Rugby team in terms of their preparation and depth and it does not require a huge leap of the imagination to see them making the last eight in Pool C. Georgia also have the ability to be a real nuisance in the same pool, while Tonga, Japan and Italy are not the pushovers of yesteryear. One or two “shock” results could easily materialise.
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