Experts have looked at how teachers' pay has risen compared to inflation since 2010 and found it has fallen by nearly 12% - shedding light on the discontent driving the strikes that shut schools this week.
The data from the Institute for Fiscal Studie comes after teachers went on strike in a row over pay and funding that saw one in three schools shut or partially shut in Wales. The real terms fall in pay means a teacher at the top end of the pay scale now earns £44,000 in Wales, compared with a salary with the equivalent of £50,000 spending power in 2010, the IFS calculated. Teachers are angry about school funding as well as eroded pay you can read about their reasons for striking here
The Welsh Government has offered teachers a below inflation 5% pay rise this year saying it can’t afford more. The biggest teaching union, the National Education Union has described the offer as “an insult” and today confirmed that talks have resumed with Cardiff Bay officials to try to negotiate an end to more planned strikes.
Read more: Right to Strike rallies draw hundreds on biggest day of industrial action in a decade
Releasing figures showing the true scale of teacher pay erosion, IFS research fellow Luke Sibieta said it was hard to see how the Welsh Government could afford more than the 5% offered.
But he repeated warnings from unions and the profession that the amount teacher pay has fallen in real terms has hit recruitment and retention. That in turn has had a knock on effect on children’s education.
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"Overall teachers in England have seen a pay cut in real terms of around 13% since 2010 and 11 to 12% in Wales," said Luke Sibieta, "There has been a smaller fall for new teachers because of the policy of ramping up starting salaries.
"The reason teacher pay has dropped less in Wales in this period than in England is because in 2021 England insituted a pay freeze for the public sector whereas Wales chose not to.
"The situation now is that a teacher earning £44,000 in Wales had the equivalent spending power of £50,000 in 2010. Mid scale salary teachers now earn about £40,000 as opposed to a salary with the value of £43,000 in 2010.
"The starting salary for teachers is now £29,000 but in 2010 they had a salary with a spending power equivalent to £30,000 in today's prices.
"If you look at these figures I think it explains why teacher retention and recruitment is such a problem. It explains where we are.
"I think it would be hard for schools and the Welsh Government to offer more than 5% looking at budgets. From the Welsh Government perspective they say the money is not coming from Westminster."
Teachers' pay is a devolved matter with the Independent Pay Review Body Wales takes evidence and making recommendations to Welsh Government. Discussions on next year's pay recommendation are starting around now, at the same time as this year's award has prompted teachers to strike.
How opinions differ on wage erosion
Some union representatives have calculated teachers' wages have dropped by 20% in real terms in the last decade and more. Calculating the changes for its research the IFS used the Consumer Price Index of inflation (CPI) whereas unions have calculated pay changes using the Retail Price Index. Both look at prices of good and services but RPI includes mortgage interest payments and therefore typically calculates inflation higher than when calculated under CPI without house prices.
Either way, a considerable erosion in the value of teachers' pay in the last 12 years is evident. In comparison private sector pay has risen 1.5% in real terms in the last 12 years, after adjusting for inflation, although that does not mean all those in the private sector earn more, just that their salaries are rising by a tiny measure - although no where near inflation, which in effect is a drop too.
Across the whole of the public sector salaries have 8.5% less spending power now than in 2010, the IFS economist said, According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate stood at 10.5% in December, down from 10.7% in November.
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