We are still a little over three weeks away from the official release of the first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2022 season. And while there will be plenty written and said, not to mention a few objects thrown against walls after those are revealed, it doesn’t stop us from talking about it.
ESPN has used its Playoff Predictor for a few years now, and although we have no idea what type of acidic solutions and combustible liquids go into the formula for deriving the metrics, we still like to check in on it each week.
After Week 5 of the college football season, there are still 16 unbeaten teams. But not all are created equal. This week, the ESPN Allstate Playoff Predictor has 14 teams with a 4% or better chance of playing for the rain of confetti.
Here’s a look at all fourteen, ranked from the worst chance to best according to the worldwide leader.
No. 13 (tie) - Oklahoma State (4-0)
Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of an Oklahoma State Cowboys helmet during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
4% (⇑)
Last Week
NR
No. 13 (tie) - LSU Tigers (4-1)
Oct 6, 2018; Gainesville, FL, USA; A detail view of LSU Tigers football helmets against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
4% (↔)
Last Week
4%
No. 12 - TCU Horned Frogs (4-0)
Jul 14, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of the TCU Horned Frogs helmet logo during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
5% (⇑)
Last Week
NR
No. 11 - Texas Longhorns (3-2)
Nov 10, 2018; Lubbock, TX, USA; A Texas Longhorns helmet on the sidelines during the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
6% (⇑)
Last Week
4%
No. 10 - Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)
Nov 23, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Tennessee Volunteers helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
7% (⇔)
Last Week
7%
No. 9 - Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
Nov 16, 2013; University Park, PA, USA; General view of a Penn State Nittany Lions helmet prior to the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Beaver Stadium. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
8% (⇓)
Last Week
10%
No. 8 - Ole Miss Rebels (5-0)
Oct. 12, 2019; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Mississippi Rebels helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
10% (⇑)
Last Week
6%
No. 7 - Utah Utes (4-1)
Sept. 14, 2019; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; A general view of the helmet worn by Utah Utes quarterback Tyler Huntley (1) against the Idaho State Bengals at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
12% (⇑)
Last Week
7%
No. 6 - USC Trojans (5-0)
Dec 29, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; General overall view of the 2017 Cotton Bowl logo on the back of the helmet of Southern California Trojans long snapper Jake Olson at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
18% (⇓)
Last Week
27%
No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (5-0)
Dec 30, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; A Michigan Wolverines football helmet sits on the field prior to the game between the Florida State Seminoles and the Michigan Wolverines at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
41% (⇑)
Last Week
30%
No. 4 - Clemson Tigers (5-0)
The Clemson football helmet near the Fiesta Bowl trophy at the coaches’ press conference in Scottsdale, Arizona Friday, December 27, 2019. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
53% (⇑)
Last Week
43%
No. 3 - Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)
Dec 12, 2020; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A detailed view of a Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
64% (⇓)
Last Week
73%
No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)
Oct. 1, 2022; Columbus; A stick-laden Ohio State Buckeyes helmet sits on the turf during warmups before Saturday’s game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Columbus. Barbara Perenic/Columbus Dispatch
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
78% (⇔)
Last Week
78%
No. 1 - Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
Jul 18, 2018; Atlanta, GA, USA; An Alabama Crimson Tide helmet is shown on the main stage during SEC football media day at the College Football Hall of Fame. Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN Playoff Predictor chances of making the CFP
87% (⇑)
Last Week
85%
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