The Fed’s once oh-so-certain cuts for the rest of 2025 are already fading into oblivion

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook luncheon in Warwick, Rhode Island, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. (Credit: Sophie Park—Bloomberg/Getty Images)

• Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data is complicating Wall Street’s hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims fell, and Q2 GDP grew 3.8%, suggesting resilience even as inflation hovers near 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. That has pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on tech stocks, with Vanguard’s Kevin Khang warning the path to sustained cuts remains “narrow.”

U.S. economic data keeps coming back stronger than expected, and frankly it’s raining on the parade for markets.