Russia’s war on Ukraine is now in its fifth year and a ceasefire remains elusive. The US’s attention is divided, limiting external pressure for compromise, while Moscow and Kyiv both still believe they can strengthen their respective negotiating positions through battlefield gains.
At some point, however, a deal will have to be done. The parameters of that deal are already understood by negotiators on all sides. Russia will give up on its original war aims and Ukraine will make de-facto territorial concessions. The US will provide Kyiv with security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression and the EU will provide Ukraine with a membership path as well as help with the country’s postwar reconstruction.
