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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Peter Beaumont

The escalation trap: how the Iran war could become more costly and complex

A burnt-out tanker truck with a thick plume of black smoke rising behind it
The aftermath of a US-Israeli strike on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran on 8 March. Experts warn of a ‘slippery slope of incrementalism. Photograph: Sobhan Farajvan/Pacific Press/Shutterstock

In its current phase, the Israeli-US war against Iran and its proxies has become a proving ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each of which threatens to become a trap.

On one side, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have failed thus far in their ill-defined and shifting strategic aims. Despite killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders in the opening salvo of the campaign, the clerical regime remains and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is unsecured. Airstrikes are intensifying and hitting a greater number of targets.

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