Australia’s republicans are ramping up their campaigns for constitutional reform after Queen Elizabeth II’s death, and planning a path to victory if the voice to parliament is enshrined.
But those who support it are more keenly aware than ever before that they are facing a battle for the hearts and minds of ordinary Australians who are firmly entrenched in the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” camp.
Those fighting the fight have now linked a successful voice to parliament vote to support for a republic. Advocates say the voice will act as a “stepping stone”. If it fails, their cause may also falter.
Matt Thistlethwaite, the assistant minister for a republic, says enshrining the voice to parliament is the first step, “giving First Nation Australians the right under our constitution to be consulted about decisions that affect them and their future”.
Australians are “out of practice” at changing the constitution, he says.
“If the voice is successful then that will be a stepping stone to further constitutional reform. Then we can move towards discussing appointing an Australian as head of state.”
Thistlethwaite says the government is already looking at a range of options for a republican model, and is determined it will be chosen by the people. He is meeting with republican and monarchist groups, and listening to multicultural communities and younger people.
“We want to make sure it unites Australians, not divides us. We’re looking at a number of options, conventions, plebiscites … they’re all on the table,” he says.
“The Elizabethan era has now ended and it’s time to move into the Australian era. That’s an era where we set our nation on a journey to maturity, independence and confidence.”
The Australian Republic Movement reignited its campaign on Friday, the day after the national day of mourning. It had paused for 14 days after the Queen’s death “out of common decency”, but is now steaming ahead.
“It’s time to have this discussion,” says Sandy Biar, the ARM’s chief executive, adding that they saw a year’s worth of membership growth in those two weeks.
Biar says they have been “getting much smarter” about their digital engagement, while building up teams of tens of thousands of volunteers who will talk to the community.
They have invested in market research to target those they need to win over, and where they need to raise awareness.
“A lot of the digital technology nowadays allows you to be much more targeted and really speak to the people you need to,” he says.
A Guardian Essential poll taken in the aftermath of the Queen’s death found just 43% of the 1,075 people polled supported a republic. A Roy Morgan poll found 40% of those surveyed supported Australia becoming a republic with a president, while a Resolve poll put the number at 46%.
Biar is unfazed by the polls – he says there’s always been a group of “swinging” voters they keep an eye on.
“There’s a group that does move back and forth every time the royals are in the news,” he says. “For weddings, for example, [but] we see that same group shift again for instance when Oprah interviewed Harry and Meghan – they shifted away.”
Thistlethwaite says he’s also unsurprised by the findings. He says they reflect the number of people who have never voted in a referendum.
Young people and multicultural communities – those who missed out on the debate surrounding the failed 1999 republican referendum – will be targeted with education and awareness campaigns. Tugging on Australian heartstrings, and appealing to their national pride will also be an integral part of the movement.
Both Biar and Thistlethwaite say these groups will be critical, because they did not live through the 1999 campaign. Many do not even realise Australia has a foreign head of state.
“Our head of state is still the King or Queen of the United Kingdom because our constitution hasn’t changed since we were a British colony,” Biar says. “They can still veto Australian laws. Their representative to Australia, the governor general, decides whether or not we can have elections.
“And we think these decisions should all be in Australian hands.”
At the last republican referendum, in 1999, the proposed change was to replace the Queen and governor general with a president appointed by a two-thirds majority of federal parliamentarians. (There was also a question about inserting a preamble in the constitution.)
While polls before the vote showed majority support for a referendum, in the end about 55% of the population voted against the move.
It failed because people disagreed on the model, constitutional expert George Williams says. Many have blamed the then prime minister, John Howard, for taking that specific model to the referendum, when it was known that opinion on it was divided.
The ARM has developed its own model, in which a national vote would be held on a shortlist determined by state and federal governments.
It has also promised it will increase its diversity, after recent criticism that its public faces, including former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and author and ARM chair Peter FitzSimons, won’t appeal to a younger generation.
FitzSimons this week declared the ARM was “back” and wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald that the movement was addressing the diversity issue.
“The charge that the ARM is not diverse enough?” he wrote. “I will take that from those with a background of pushing diversity on all fronts, and we are addressing it. (Big news to come shortly.) But I’ll be damned if I’ll take it from critics with a track record of fawning and cooing to all of the English royal family bar its one actually diverse member, who they incessantly criticise for everything: Meghan. You’re the ones who value diversity?”
Biar – who is in his mid 30s – says an increasing number of people from diverse backgrounds, including First Nations people, are getting involved.
Williams, a University of New South Wales professor, suspects that, in the wake of the Queen’s death, there will be an upward swing in the republican movement, but warns of the high bar to get a referendum across the line.
Australian referendums require a majority vote in a majority of states to pass.
“That’s the challenge. You need a proposal that has broad and strong coverage across the whole nation,” Williams says.
The voice passing will see a shift in mindset, he says, but if it fails, it could push the republican movement back by a decade or more.
“It’s entwined with the future of the voice,” he says.
There is support across the political spectrum for a change.
The Greens were first out of the blocks, with leader Adam Bandt using his condolence message to call for constitutional change. Labor has long advocated for a republic, and prime minister Anthony Albanese is a republican, although he said it was “inappropriate” to discuss it during the commemorations for the Queen.
A range of opposition and independent MPs are in favour. But there are equally passionate voices against.
Former Tasmanian senator Eric Abetz is the chair of the Australian Monarchist League’s campaign.
He paints the monarchists as the underdogs. While the way the campaigns will be funded is still under consideration, he says Thistlethwaite’s position gives the republicans an unfair advantage.
“It’s a very uneven card when the government is propagating things with all the resources of government,” he says.
(Thistlethwaite is unapologetic, and says working towards a republic has been part of Labor’s platform for two decades.)
“Our financial resources are so limited it will be difficult for us to run a full campaign, but we’ll use every media avenue that’s available and open to us,” Abetz says.
But the onus is on the republicans to make the case for change, he says, claiming it would do “absolutely nothing” for the “average man or woman in the street”.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
That’s the main sticking point, the ARM says – people who think the system’s just fine as it is. “But the closer they get to it, the uglier it is,” he says.
He points to the power wielded by the governor general in the dismissal, and former prime minister Scott Morrison’s use of the governor general to secretly give himself additional portfolio powers.
Thistlethwaite says there is something a republic can do for the Australians Abetz is concerned about.
“The overwhelming emotion that we’re trying to stimulate among the Australian population is pride in our history, particularly our Indigenous history and connection with the land, but also pride in the modern Australian identity,” he says.
