“If I look at the squad, going through it, there’s up to eight players in there who are potentially playing their last Six Nations game.”
Well, OK.
But not everyone saw those words from Warren Gatland coming at his press conference this week ahead of Wales’ 2023 Six Nations finale against France.
Most assumed that two or three players, for sure, might be saying their goodbyes to the championship, but eight is a lot. “We’ve got to think about building for the World Cup this year, but also thinking about 2027,” continued Gatland.
What happened to the idea of steady rebuilding, of easing young players into an experienced team? The problem with that is that sometimes tomorrow never comes and people are reluctant to let go of the senior personnel, particularly if they’ve performed great deeds in the past, so there may not be enough emphasis on developing the next generation.
Has such thinking led Wales to their current position, with a huge gulf between senior stars and young guns and little in between? Some will think that.
Anyway, here are the players Gatland might have had in mind when he uttered those words.
Alun Wyn Jones (current age: 37)
What a ride it has been since Jones made his championship debut in 2007.
He has been talismanic for Wales for much of the time since.
He still has a fifth World Cup to tick off on his to-do list as a player, but it’s hard to imagine him making the starting grid for the 2024 Six Nations. Presumably, the thinking will be that the new kids on the block can be upgraded with four years to properly develop them.
Potential replacement: Dafydd Jenkins
Ken Owens (36)
The old warrior hasn’t played as if Father Time is on his case in this Six Nations.
As captain, he’s set a superb example and has often led the way with carries and tackles.
But if Wales start afresh next year then Owens might struggle to make the cut, however well he is playing. The lesson of this cycle is, perhaps, the sooner young players are exposed to Test rugby and bedded in, the better.
Potential replacement: Dewi Lake
Rhys Webb (34)
Webb showed he still has what it takes with his effort against Italy in Rome. You can read here how he rolled back the years in Rome.
He has been bang on form for the Ospreys as well.
But if the national coaches start planning for the 2027 World Cup the minute this autumn’s event finishes, the likelihood is Webb’s days as a Test player will end.
He has never played at a global tournament, and a good display against France on Saturday would leave him looking a decent bet for the event that starts in September.
Beyond that, it could take a lot for him to hold his place.
Potential replacement: Tomos Williams, with the Scarlets’ Archie Hughes and Harri Williams longer-term bets.
Leigh Halfpenny (34)
He’s in the nervous nineties in terms of Wales caps, needing just two more to reach his century. It would take a heart of stone not to hope that this most courageous of players reaches the landmark. He’s set to edge closer at Stade de France, then needs to make the squad for the World Cup warm-ups.
But whether he reaches his ton or not, the probability is 2023 will be his last as an international player.
He’s 35 in December and there’s more than a fair chance he will run out of road in Test terms.
But what a servant he’s been.
Potential full-back options: Liam Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit, with Cameron Winnett and Jacob Beetham others who’ll be in the mix going forward.
Who will win France v Wales? Have your say here
Dan Biggar (33)
“You’d better get used to him, because he’s going to be around for the next decade.”
So said Warren Gatland back in 2009, when a teenage Dan Biggar was breaking through with total belief in himself and a willingness to say what was on his mind.
Fourteen years later, Biggar is still going strong, still believing in himself and still happy to say what he thinks, even if the years have equipped him with a shade more diplomacy.
He’s been written off countless times but never fully read the memo.
But he’s 34 in October and playing in France.
It’s not inconceivable he could be involved.
But it’s not out of the question he could finish of his own volition, either, or be seen as having run his course in Test rugby.
Potential fly-half options: Gareth Anscombe (if he doesn’t call time on his own Test career after the World Cup), with Owen Williams, Rhys Patchell, Callum Sheedy and Sam Davies waiting in the queue, and with Sam Costelow, Will Reed, Dan Edwards and Joe Hawkins options for the future.
Justin Tipuric (33)
The man with the blue hat doesn’t play as if he’s nearing the end of anything.
But he’ll blow out 34 candles on his birthday cake in August.
The question for the coaches on Tipuric, and on some of the others listed here, is what if he and they are still the best players in their positions. Do the coaches operate on a campaign by campaign basis or do they start a completely new rebuild post-World Cup?
It would be odd if someone were to be playing the house down every week, yet Wales were not picking him.
Potential openside options: Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell and James Botham, with Harri Deaves, Dan Davis and maybe Morgan Morse also putting their hands up as the next cycle unfolds.
Taulupe Faletau (32)
"God help us when he decides to call it a day." So said Dan Biggar of Faletau last year.
The No. 8 who hits a hundred caps this weekend has been a superb servant for Wales over more than a decade.
It’s hard to see him reaching the 2027 World Cup — hard to see, but not unimaginable — but should that be the cue to wave him off into the sunset after the global bash this autumn?
You would not have thought so.
Of course, he may decide to call it a day himself.
But he is still so far ahead of his rivals that if he wants to carry on then the temptation for whoever’s coaching Wales next February will be to pick him, then see how he goes on a season by season basis, perhaps while remembering the old line that there’s more to rugby than World Cups.
Potential replacements: Ross Moriarty, Aaron Wainwright, Morgan Morris, Carwyn Tuipulotou, James Ratti.
The eighth man?
Gatland suggested eight men could potentially be playing their final Six Nations games this weekend. With just seven listed above, who might be the final individual we may be seeing the last of in the championship?
Wyn Jones is 31 but props can carry on and indeed come into their prime in their 30s. Tomas Francis is a year younger and the thinking on Jones applies to him. Theoretically, both could have good years left.
What of George North?
He is only 30 himself but he has been playing Test rugby since 2010 and there have been a lot of injuries. Might he make a call on his future himself? Or might he decide to press on and see if he can reach 2027?
Looking at injured squad players, Liam Williams is 31 and there is talk of the full-back playing in Japan.
Again, he is the best in his position right now, so it would seem odd to carry on without him next year.
Such are the decisions that whoever is coaching Wales will face for the 2024 Six Nations.
They are tough calls, because all the players listed above have excelled over a long period.
But nothing lasts for ever.
All in sport know as much.
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