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Fortune
Fortune
Eleanor Pringle

The economy's prospects are reliant on the 'fortunes of the well-to-do' says Moody's, if the ultra-rich get nervy that means recession

People walk in a shopping district along 5th Avenue in Manhattan on July 14, 2025, in New York City. (Credit: Spencer Platt - Getty Images)
  • A Moody’s analysis shows U.S. spending growth since the pandemic has come almost entirely from the wealthiest households, with the bottom 80% merely keeping pace with inflation. Chief economist Mark Zandi warned that the economy is increasingly “tethered” to the top earners, whose wealth continues to surge, while retail sales remain resilient despite weaker job growth and higher prices.

If you feel like the economy isn’t working for you, that’s because it probably isn’t. According to the latest analysis from Moody’s, the bottom 80% of earners have merely spent in line with inflation since the pandemic—it’s the top 20% which are driving the growth.

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