When the Dallas Mavericks started out the 2024-25 campaign a lowly 5-7, many folks suspected a classic case of NBA Finals hangover. However, since their mediocre opening act, they’ve won 12 of their last 15 contests and boosted themselves to 17-10 for fourth in the West.
So, how have the reigning Western Conference champions rediscovered their groove?
It’s Better To Be Lucky Than Good
Earlier in the season, the Sportscasting NBA crew did a roundtable looking at which teams were better or worse than their win-loss record suggested. While the Mavericks weren’t one of the teams we highlighted, they were certainly much better than their sub-.500 record would lead you to believe.
On paper, they’re exactly the type of team you covet in the modern NBA. They have top-end talent in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, defensive anchors who complement their stars on offense in Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, and a cavalcade of wings who can take turns stepping into one of the two 3-and-D slots on any given night in Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper. That’s all without mentioning their two combustible combo guards, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy.
Alas, there were two things slowing them. First, a poor start from downtown. Through their first 12 games, the Mavericks were 20th in 3-point percentage (34.2 percent). Now, bad shooting teams will shoot poorly from three. But with Irving, Doncic, Thompson and Grimes on the roster, expectations are much higher than that, which is exactly what has happened. In their last 15 games, they’re second in 3-point percentage (40.7 percent).
Now that their threes are falling, the offense is operating at full capacity (114.3 offensive rating), going from the ninth-best offense through 12 games to third-best in the last 15 (118.8).
The other luck-based variable at play here is their clutch time record. During their cold stretch, the Mavericks had the worst clutch record in basketball (1-6). Again, bad clutch teams tend to perform poorly in close game situations. But this is largely the same core that finished with the second-best clutch record in the league last year (23-9).
More than likely, they just had a few flukey bounces to start the year. How do we know that? During the run that prompted this article, the Mavericks have been 6-1 in clutch games!
Make Your Own Luck
It would be unfair to chalk the Mavericks’ recent run up to merely positive regression in shooting and clutch time situations. They’ve also taken steps to stack the odds in their favor.
Compared to their early season play, it’s immediately apparent that their effort level defensively has dialed up. Coming out of the gates, the Mavericks looked like a team content with their previous success. This was evident in their lack of urgency when getting back on defense (26th in transition points allowed per 100 possessions during the first 12 games).
Nowadays, the Finals-caliber fire and intensity from last season is back in full form (second in opponent transition points per 100 over the past 15 games).
A special shoutout is owed to Washington. Earlier, I may have framed him as one of many role player wings within the Mavericks’ rolodex. Washington is the most important forward on this roster. His refined ball skills make him excellent at punishing weaker defenders that opponents try to hide from Irving and Doncic, while his length and physicality make him a versatile man defender and fierce secondary rim protector.
Washington is the glue that makes this Mavericks’ roster stick together. They’ve managed to go 5-2 without Doncic this year. But when Washington is missing from the lineup, they’re just 1-5 — meaning they’re 16-5 when he’s healthy. Specifically, five of the six games he’s missed this year were during Dallas’ 5-7 stretch to open the season.
The Bottom Line
The Mavericks are a better team than their 5-7 start. But they likely won’t continue to shoot over 40 percent from three or win 86.7 percent of their clutch games. So, winning 12 out of every 15 games isn’t their new normal.
Ironically enough, their current record — which is basically evenly balanced between their slow start and blazing rebirth — and net rating (seventh at plus-6.6) are accurate depictions of where they sit in the league hierarchy.
The Mavericks aren’t among my inner circle of title contenders (Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies). Instead, they exist in the outer shell. It’s the same placed they stood last year before marching all the way to the NBA Finals, so they’ve set themselves up well and refuted any claims of a 2024-25 hangover.
