Housing affordability is set to be a dominant issue of the 2024 presidential elections, and high home prices are fueling much of the electorate’s dissatisfaction with the overall economy. But most Americans’ current inability to afford a house could actually benefit the current occupant of the White House in key swing counties come November, an academic study recently found.
The study, “Housing Performance and the Electorate,” analyzed home prices and election results across every county in the continental U.S. over each of the last six presidential elections. What it found was that swing counties where home prices increased significantly in the four years leading up to an election were more likely to vote for the incumbent candidate, while counties with a poorer price performance were more likely to flip for the challenging party.
