This weekend 12 months ago, it felt as though half of Slovenia had decamped to the slopes of Monte Lussari in support of Primož Roglič. On that occasion, they travelled to the final weekend of the Giro d’Italia in hope as much as in expectation. This time out, they will mass on Monte Grappa already secure in the knowledge that they are bearing witness to a coronation.
Tadej Pogačar has been utterly without peer on this Giro. For much of the race, it has been as though he has been riding behind a velvet rope, travelling to exclusive areas that even riders of the quality of Geraint Thomas and Daniel Martínez simply cannot access.
This past week, at Livigno, at Monte Pana and on the Passo Brocon, nobody even really tried to follow when Pogačar accelerated. By then, they were applying the lesson absorbed by Ben O’Connor on the first summit finish at Oropa, namely that it’s always best to avert your gaze and avoid looking directly into the sun.
And, as sure as the sun will rise on Saturday, Pogačar will attack on Monte Grappa on stage 20. The only question is when, given that the category 1 ascent is tackled twice before the drop to the finish in Bassano del Grappa.
“Let’s see if I have good legs,” Pogačar said in Sappada on Friday evening, but his was a half-hearted protest. When does he ever not have good legs?
Almost in the same breath, Pogačar pointed clearly to his intentions for Monte Grappa in the manner of Babe Ruth calling his shot at Wrigley Field in the 1932 World Series. “We are ready, and we will try to go for it,” he said.
In this race, almost everything Pogačar has tried has come off, at least since the sprinters’ teams swept up his surprise late attack at Fossano on stage 3. His UAE Team Emirates squad granted the breakaway ample leeway on the road to Sappada on Friday, but they will not pass on the opportunity to tee Pogačar up for his sixth stage victory of this Giro. A fifth win in the maglia rosa, incidentally, would equal the feats of Eddy Merckx and Learco Guerra.
“Today we saved a bit with the team. Tomorrow is the last chance for the climbers, and I think it’s going to be a hard race,” said Pogačar, the man at the helm of the team most likely to make it a hard race for all concerned.
Friuli’s proximity to Slovenian meant that Pogačar saw plenty of familiar faces from his native Komenda on the road to Sappada on Friday. Monte Grappa is a little further afield, but there seems little doubt that the slopes will be awash with Slovenian flags, much like Monte Lussari a year ago.
“Today I think 90% of my hometown was on the road. There were so many Slovenian flags and the Pogi Team there also, so it was just brilliant,” Pogačar said. “And tomorrow is also going to be super nice.”
Podium battle
Behind the seemingly inevitable final instalment in Pogacar’s exhibition, Geraint Thomas (Ineos) will seek to add his catalogue of Grand Tour places of honour in Bassano del Grappa. The Welshman, currently third at 8:04, should, barring a late surprise, hold a podium spot, but he will have designs on trying to nudge his old teammate Daniel Martínez (Bora-Hansgrohe) out of second place, given that he trails the Colombian by just 22 seconds.
Thomas and Martínez have been well-matched throughout this Giro, both on the climbs and against the watch. Martínez’s greater explosiveness has given him an edge on occasion, most notably when he moved ahead of Thomas on GC at Monte Pana, but Thomas might hope the rigours of a day with 4,200m of total climbing might yet play to his powers of endurance. “One more big day,” was Thomas’ succinct assessment.
Behind them, Ben O’Connor (Decathlon-AG2R) lies fourth at 9:47, and at this juncture, the Australian will likely set out looking over his shoulder at Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), just 42 seconds behind him, rather than with the aim of attacking to dislodge Martínez or Thomas from the podium.
And while Tiberi has spoken optimistically of targeting O’Connor’s fourth place, the Italian won’t risk too much given that he’s defending a prize of his own. His lead in the best young rider classification stands at 41 seconds over Thymen Arensman, though the Dutchman’s challenge for the maglia bianca will surely depend on how Ineos deploy him in Thomas’ service.
Route details
The penultimate stage of the Giro takes place entirely in the Veneto, covering 184km between Alpago and Bassano del Grappa. This area around Treviso and Vicenza is one of the great heartlands of Italian bike racing and of the bicycle industry at large, and the early portion of the stage takes in one of the holy sites as the gruppo tackles the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio near Conegliano.
The centrepiece of Saturday’s stage is, of course, Monte Grappa, which is tackled twice via the same Semonzo del Grappa approach that featured in the mountain time trial ten years ago, when Nairo Quintana all but sealed the overall victory.
Monte Grappa holds a sombre resonance due to the three battles fought between Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire on the mountainside at horrific human cost during World War I. The memorial at the summit houses the remains of 22,950 soldiers, of whom fewer than 3,000 have been identified.
Although there are no fewer than ten roads up Monte Grappa, the Giro has visited the climb only sparingly, beginning with Emilio Casalini’s victory in 1968. More recently, Vincenzo Nibali won over the climb into Asolo in 2010, while Quintana’s victory of a decade ago was the Giro’s last visit to the summit.
The category 1 ascent is 18.1km in length at an average gradient of 8.1% and with precious little respite save for a brief descent around the midway point and another just before the final approach to the summit. For the most part, the climb is an even one, the slopes flitting between 7% and 8%, but the most demanding part comes in the final 3km, which features ramps of 14%.
Adding to the difficulty of Saturday’s stage is the fact that there is little respite between the twin ascents. The route drops to Semonzo del Grappa after the first climb and then immediately swings back into the second shot of Monte Grappa.
After reaching the summit for the second time, there are still 30km left to the finish in Bassano del Grappa, but it’s mostly downhill. There’s a strong chance the first man to the top will be the first across the line on Bassano del Grappa’s Viale delle Fosse, especially if that man is wearing pink.
Stage 20 Sprints
- Intermediate sprint, km. 75.3
- Intergiro bonus sprint, km. 135
- Time bonus sprint, km. 163.6
Stage 20 Mountains
- Muro di ca 'del Poggio (cat. 4), km. 30.3
- Monte Grappa (cat. 1), km. 106.1 - 18.1km at 8.1%, max 14%
- Monte Grappa (cat. 1), km. 153.3- 18.1km at 8.1%, max 14%
