2025 proved to be the best year for camera sales in more than five years, but experts are predicting a more modest year for 2026 – including a slowdown for the mirrorless market.
The Camera and Imaging Products Association (CIPA), the same group that tracks data for camera sales from key Japanese brands, predicts that camera sales overall will see only a modest 1.6 percent increase in 2026. But, CIPA predicts that mirrorless is in for a slight decline in 2026 as compact cameras continue to grow.
Overall, CIPA predicts around 9.59 million cameras will ship in 2026, which is 101.6 percent of the 2025 numbers. While that’s an overall growth in numbers, it’s a slower growth than the previous year, as 2025 saw an 11.2 percent uptick from 2024.
The numbers look rather different when looking at the 2026 predictions by camera type. CIPA expects fewer mirrorless cameras to ship in 2026 at around 6.82 million bodies, which is a 2.6 percent drop from 2025’s 7 million units. Lenses are expected to fare a bit better but still decline by .9 percent at 10.51 million shipments.
The numbers swing a different way, however, for cameras with built-in lenses, a category that includes compact cameras and bridge cameras. CIPA predicts 2.77 million fixed lens cameras will ship in 2026, which is a 13.6 percent increase compared to 2025’s 2.44 million cameras.
While that’s a noticeable increase, it’s also a slower rate of growth, as 2025 saw a 29.6 percent uptick in shipments for the compact camera category.
The predictions comes from surveys completed by CIPA and presented during CP+ in Japan. Like the weather forecast, the camera forecast is not a sure thing. But, it’s interesting to see what the organization known for tallying all the camera sales data predicts for 2026. CIPA doesn’t seem to think 2026 will be another year for double-digit growth, but expects the market to continue to stabilize.
Compact cameras have been trending up for the past few years, making a resurgence after being nearly obliterated by the smartphone. The trend can be traced to a number of different potential causes, including viral compact cameras on social media, a resurgence in retro tech in general, and perhaps even digital minimalism shifting away from smartphone photography.
CIPA only tracks data from its member companies in Japan, but that’s an extensive list that includes camera giants like Canon, Sony, Nikon, Fujifilm, OM System, Panasonic, Sigma, and Tamron. Camera brands outside of Japan – such as Leica and Kodak – aren’t among the numbers tracked.
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Browse more news from CP+ in Japan. Or, take a look at the best compact cameras or the best mirrorless cameras.
