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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Coalition leads in Victorian DemosAU poll, with One Nation posting 21% support

One Nation is just two points behind Labor in a Victorian state DemosAU poll, with the election in November. A federal Resolve poll has One Nation and the Coalition tied at 23% each with Labor well ahead.

The Victorian state election is in late November. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted February 1–10 from a sample of 1,274, gave the Coalition 29% of the primary vote (down eight since an October DemosAU poll), Labor 23% (down three), One Nation 21% (not previously asked for), the Greens 15% (steady) and all Others 12% (down ten).

The Coalition led Labor by 53–47 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Even if Labor fell below One Nation on primary votes, Greens preferences would boost them back ahead of One Nation.

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