Hammered by lockdowns and office towers emptied of workers, shops in Australia's central business districts (CBDs) are getting back to it.
For fashion retailer ELK in central Melbourne, the return of daily commuters to the CBD is a return to a new kind of normal.
"Having that inconsistency in trade has been our biggest challenge," co-founder Marnie Goding said.
"We love seeing those office workers come in every day.
"They're buying outfits, not only for their work day but for their weekend, and to socialise as well.
Across the nation, city centres have felt the impact of the pandemic. Even capitals in states that largely avoided the worst of lockdowns and restrictions in 2020 and 2021 are seeing office occupancy well below pre-COVID levels.
On top of that, the closure of national and state borders prevented and deterred tourists and business travellers — many of them would have been set to stay in city hotels.
For owners of the shops they would have been visiting, it has been a difficult two years.
CBD retail investments expected to recover
Stores such as supermarkets and pharmacies have essentially never shut during the pandemic. But widespread lockdowns forcing the closure of "non-essential" services meant that CBD retail was one of the hardest-hit sectors.
However, landlords are again betting on a bright future, according to Benjamin Martin-Henry, head of real estate research at Real Capital Analytics Australia.
In 2019, Mr Martin-Henry noted, the total sales figure was $1.4 billion.
"In 2021, investors acquired several significant CBD retail assets as the fall in values recorded in 2020 may have enticed them to get back into the sector," he said.
More than $2.1 billion in central business district retail was sold last year, up 225 per cent on 2020 and above average for pre-pandemic years.
Tough return for some CBD businesses
There's pain everywhere, even if you're a billionaire with more than a thousand stores globally such as retailer Solomon Lew.
"You know, businesses are failing," the Premier Investments chair says, standing in a Smiggle store in the Melbourne Central shopping centre.
"The coffee shops don't have visitors, the sandwich bars don't have visitors and it's just an empty town. It's just very unfortunate."
Mr Lew's listed company is doing well — it made $272 million net profit after tax in 2021.
Smiggle sells school supplies and stationery to children around the world, but it is exposed to a lack of foot traffic in CBDs.
Alongside fashion brands — including Just Jeans, Peter Alexander and Portmans — the company holds just under 20 per cent of the shares of department store Myer, which is largely in suburban shopping centres but has massive sites in CBDs of every state capital except for Darwin.
The company's leadership is particularly scathing of Melbourne's response to the pandemic.
There have been long stretches of lockdown in the Victorian capital — and many who would normally toil in the city have gotten used to working from home.
"You look at Sydney and Brisbane, there is more traffic," Premier Investments chief executive Richard Murray said.
"So, you know, it might be tough in those cities, but you see a pathway to traffic returning. Certainly, in Melbourne, we've got a long way to go"
Retail rents not dropping
Prolific deal-maker Zelman Ainsworth doesn't doubt the future of Australia's cities when it comes to retail.
"Things have changed in the city completely from what it was two months ago," he said.
"The commute [by car] is probably double the time it used to be. You can't get a seat in a restaurant in the city. Things definitely have come back."
Mr Ainsworth is placing clients who haven't had shops in Melbourne's CBD before, including suburban cafes with huge local followings and niche retailers selling items such as cigars or high-end bikes for triathlons.
Like other proponents, he sees CBDs all over the country as their own shopping centres, often with precincts that specialise in menswear, women's wear, food and entertainment.
A difference post-pandemic is that operators are drilling into knowledge gleaned from online shopping — where purchases are made, to which offices deliveries are sent — to make stronger decisions about leasing shops.
There's been no crash in value.
Mr Ainsworth said landlords were thinking more holistically about the best uses of their property, rather than just squeezing the top figure they can get in rent.
"They're asking, 'What will this do for the area?', 'What will this do for tenants in this building?'
"That wasn't a conversation we were having with private owners even a couple of years ago."
That resonates with ELK's Ms Goding. She's looking for another city site, but the bargains are already gone.
"We thought, post-pandemic, that leases would be everywhere and we'd be able to have the pick of the bunch," she said.
"However, it's actually the opposite. We're seeing less and less doors available."
It means there is more competition for foot traffic returning to town.
