Silicon Valley's pre-eminent leaders love prematurely predicting that their products will completely upend the world as we know it. The latest case study comes from Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, the company behind the ChatGPT AI chatbot that has gone viral for its convincing imitations of human writing. Two years ago, Altman wrote a manifesto, "Moore's Law for Everything," in which he forecast that artificial intelligence would make huge swaths of both white collar and blue collar jobs obsolete. As he wrote:
In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions. And in the decades after that, they will do almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries that will expand our concept of "everything."… The coming change will center around the most impressive of our capabilities: the phenomenal ability to think, create, understand, and reason.
