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Salon
Salon
Science
Michael Schulson

The challenges of calculating a lab leak

At the University of Minnesota's Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, the door to the lab where the first step is taken in the testing of samples for the monkeypox virus has a warning sign to let others know not to enter. JUDY GRIESEDIECK/Star Tribune via Getty Images

On a sunny September morning in 2011, at a conference on the Mediterranean island of Malta, virologist Ron Fouchier made an announcement that shook the scientific world. His lab, he said, had taken H5N1 avian influenza virus — which kills around 60 percent of people with known cases, but which cannot spread easily from person to person — and altered it to transmit among mammals.

He had created, he told a reporter later that year, "probably one of the most dangerous viruses you can make."

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