The favorites reign in the women’s NCAA tournament. Since 1994, the top three seeds in each region have lost only one game in the first round. Total. Just because the chalk wins, though, doesn’t mean picking the chalk is always right. When hundreds of thousands of brackets converge on the same top teams, it makes it harder for those same entries to separate from each other. Going against the grain in the right spots can be enough to differentiate from the pack.
So, the first step is identifying who the chalk actually is. ESPN publishes pick percentages for each matchup, which gives a snapshot of public sentiment and provides the basis for the numbers listed below.
