The Biggest Risk to SpaceX Stock Comes After Earnings. Here Are The Numbers You Should Keep An Eye On.

SpaceX (SPCX) has a big test coming, and it has little to do with earnings. When the company went public in June, only about 5% of its shares were actually available to trade. The rest were locked up, meaning insiders and early investors could not sell them yet. That lockup period is now starting to end. The first and largest early release is tied to the company’s first earnings report on Aug. 4. A couple of days after the results, roughly 900 million shares will be freed up. To put that in perspective, that single batch is larger than the entire IPO.

The timing is what makes this tricky. SPCX stock will be digesting its earnings and a huge jump in available shares at the same time. More shares for sale, with the same pool of buyers, tends to push the price down. And this is not a one-off. After the first release, smaller batches of roughly 7% unlock every few weeks through October. This will increase further, releasing up to 28% after the third-quarter results. The final restrictions come off in December. So the supply keeps arriving in waves for months.