This week the number of prop bets have been significantly reduced with six teams on their bye week, but the picks cover the gamut – two of the AFC’s best hitting the Over, two NFC quarterbacks who won’t hit their number, and one of the league’s most physical receivers getting into the end zone.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf scores a touchdown (+105)
The Cardinals are banged up and the Seattle is at home, which typically is a nice combination for the Seahawks. Metcalf is a matchup nightmare but has been slowed with a rib injury, which he has played through. He is questionable with a hip issue also added to his ailment list, so check prior to kickoff to be safe, but all signs point to him playing. He’s facing the Cardinals playing backups at key spots on both sides of the ball, and the Seahawks should dominate the time of possession battle. Metcalf doesn’t need many opportunities to make a big play, and he should get his share of opportunities Sunday, despite being listed a game-time decision.
4
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff UNDER 243.5 passing yards (-115)
Goff is having a big season for the surging Lions, but he’s going on the road to Baltimore where the Ravens defense has been oppressive. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks less than 200 passing yards a game. Baltimore will look to string together long drives and force the Lions to try to keep pace. Goff is capable of surpassing this number, but he has hit under it in three of his last four games – against lesser defenses than he will face Sunday.
3
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 248.5 passing yards (-115)
For two decades, the New England Patriots dominated their division opponents. Buffalo is the only opponent that has thrown that back in their face the last three years. Allen has surpassed this number in two of his last three games against the Patriots and two of his last three road games in New England. With the exception of last week, when the Bills win they win big. Given the built-in animosity with the Patriots, Allen will look to start fast and keep the pressure on through the air.
2
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
Hurts has been under this number in four of six games, but with an opponent like Miami, his role will likely be more as a passer than a runner. The Dolphins’ explosive offense forces the hand of opponents as they try to get them into a back-and-forth of running up-tempo. The Eagles are capable of taking the air out of the ball with long, grinding drives, but Hurts will likely be throwing more than he typically does, which will reduce his rushing opportunities.
1
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 73.5 receiving yards
Kelce has owned the Los Angeles Chargers during his career. In his previous five games, he has topped 90 receiving yards in four of them. Over the last two games, he and Patrick Mahomes have been counting on one another – Kelce has caught 19 passes of the 20 passes thrown his way for 191 yards and a touchdown. In this offense, he is almost unstoppable; if he gets anywhere close to nine receptions again, this number will get blown past.
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