Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 18
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 7-10-0
All-time record: 26-41-3 (39.3%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
Last week, Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel was the choice, and I stand by my initial decision to promote him. However, in hindsight, it’s easy to say I should have pivoted to a different player once the news broke that Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t be on the field. I stuck with Samuel mainly because he had been successful in recent weeks with Sam Howell. My only regret is not choosing the other player I had strongly debated before settling on Samuel … Juwan Johnson. Oof.
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard at Washington Commanders
So, while name-brand players don’t normally find their way into this space, Pollard’s season has been a disappointment in relation to his fantasy draft expectations. He has been streaky, but even when Pollard has stepped up his game, the results haven’t been a display of week-winning dominance.
Pollard hasn’t scored in four straight contests and posted more than 7.7 points in only one of those games. On the year, this Memphis product has averaged nearly three fewer fantasy points per game than last year despite seeing 3.5 more weekly touches, which suggests maybe less is more for his big-play profile. Through the first six games, Pollard mostly lived up to borderline RB1 status but was a better No. 2. Since, he has failed to reach double figures 60% of the time in PPR scoring. His early-season role as a receiver was much more stable than in the second half of 2023.
To his credit, Pollard has not gone more than three consecutive outings without a breaking into double digits, and he has four 16-plus-pointers in a row (Weeks 11-14) when he has been at his best this season. He had a fine game in Week 12 vs. the Commanders, generating 22.3 points, which was his best fantasy day of the year.
Since that game, Washington has ceded the most rushing yards, fantasy points, and total yards per game, and no defense has permitted rushing TDs at a higher frequency in that time. Throughout 2023, versatile backs have thumped the Commanders, and 18 total scores have come in the 16 games played. Only three defenses have allowed more receptions and aerial touchdowns. The matchup rating is 22.3% better than average on the year and an absurd 65.6% softer over the duration of the season.
Pollard will be the 18th back to get into double figures vs. this feeble unit.
My projection: 14 carries, 68 rushing yards, 1 TD, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 36 yards (21.4 PPR points)
