Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 17
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 7-9-0
All-time record: 26-40-3 (39.9%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
As they say in golf, there are no pictures on the scorecard. The Week 16 selection of Minnesota Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens was a solid win for this article’s purposes, but it didn’t play out as foreseen. Mullens threw for 123 more yards than projected, which helped buoy his value after coming one TD pass short and tossing three more picks than forecasted. His strong fantasy day was good enough for QB9 overall in the fantasy divisional round, presuming your league doesn’t overly penalize for gifting the ball to the opposing team.
This week, we head to the East Coast and put faith in one of the game’s most erratic wide receivers going against a name-brand defense that alone might deter otherwise intrigued gamers.
Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel vs. San Francisco 49ers
The inspiration behind playing Samuel really isn’t based much on what he has done but more so the extenuating circumstances around him. Washington moves on to veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett as the starter after he made relief appearances for a struggling Sam Howell each of the last two games. (12/29 update: Brissett suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable, but Samuel’s recommendation still stands with either quarterback. It’s slightly safer with Brissett, however.) Typically more of a game manager, Brissett is still capable of spinning it but offers more appeal for his ability to diagnose defenses and get through his progressions. Samuel is a primary checkdown read on many plays, and he also will get his number dialed up for manufactured touches.
Samuel has posted three double-digit PPR showings in the last four games, although Week 16’s was a flop with just three points to his credit vs. the toughest fantasy defense of his position. But it wasn’t for a lack of trying as he was targeted six times and rushed the ball on four plays. The prior week, vs. the Los Angeles Rams, this former Carolina Panther went for a 5-41-2 line through the air, and the second touchdown came from Brissett’s hand.
Prior to that recent four-game stretch, Samuel was utterly useless in fantasy, topping out at 6.5 points in PPR scoring over the previous month of play. Earlier in the year, his streakiness was on full display with Samuel going for 11 or more points in four of the first six outings.
So we’ve established most of the risk here comes from Samuel himself, but there’s also the factor of his opponent. The 49ers instill fear in many fantasy owners who blindly take name value into consideration.
Make no mistake, this isn’t a knee-jerk reaction to the San Francisco’s defense getting thumped last week by Baltimore, but some of this recommendation is actually nod to how the Niners should respond on offense rather than defense. You can be sure the 49ers will be looking to run up the score a week after Brock Purdy tossed four interceptions. That is a recipe to force Washington to hoist the rock all day long, which will benefit Samuel, especially if San Francisco blankets Terry McLaurin.
In the last five weeks, the position has averaged the 14th-most catches per game, resulting in four touchdowns at the 20th-highest rate. The 128.4 yards allowed, on average, checks in as the ninth fewest. On the year, the position has fared much better. WRs have posted 13 receiving scores in 15 games, and 19 players have tallied at least 10 PPR points.
It’s unlikely the injury-ravaged Washington backfield will do much on the ground, and we could see Samuel be called upon to act as a short-area extension of the running game to help eliminate a lot of third-and-long scenarios. Plus, there’s always the potential bonus if Washington utilizes Samuel as an occasional rusher.
What is the expected baseline here to consider starting Samuel a success? Something in the neighborhood of WR3 returns should make the juice worth the squeeze, but there’s upside for more if Washington has to pass north of 40 times.
My projection: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD, 1 rush, 4 yards (17.7 PPR points)
