Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 12
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 4-7-0
All-time record: 23-38-3 (35.9%)
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
Last week, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley was the selection and made it three straight successful recommendation. He turned in a monster effort after failing to reach seven PPR points in three of the previous four games. Scratching and clawing my way back to getting even, this week’s choice is a former Jaguar who is trying to navigate a divisional foe to victory over a member of the NFC South.
Indianapolis Colts QB Gardner Minshew vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minshew returns from the bye with wide receiver Josh Downs no longer on the injury report, which helps his odds. Another factor working in the quarterback’s favor is that Tampa Bay has been strong against running backs, which should lead to a bit more passing from Indy.
In addition to Downs, who is having a strong rookie campaign, Minshew will have Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and tight end Kylen Granson available. The Bucs have given up a fair amount of work to TEs so far, and the position has been rocked by receivers not only on the year but even more so in the last few weeks. This matchup for wideouts sits 60.4% easier than the league average in the last three weeks, 33.8% over the last five, and 24.1% on the season. That kind of success rarely occurs without a strong quarterback performance.
At home, Indianapolis battles a Bucs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (23.2) to quarterbacks in 2023. Over the last five weeks, no defense has given up more points to the position (28.2). In the past three contests, we’ve seen Brock Purdy (30.1) and C.J. Stroud (44.4) explode vs. Tampa as injuries and a lack of pressure have played major roles in the aerial success.
Every passer but rookie Will Levis posted at least 250 yards and 22 or more fantasy points following the Buccaneers’ Week 5 bye. Three of those guys went for 30 or more points, and Josh Allen is the only name on that list anyone drafted as a fantasy QB1.
As long as Minshew puts the ball up 30 times, he’s a decent bet to finish as a fantasy starter this week. The major risk at play here is he hasn’t done either of those things in the last three games.
My projection: 21-of-31 attempts, 277 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 7 yards (22.6 fantasy points)
