One of the most interesting matchups in the Week 13 Sunday slate of games is the one between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals at Cincinnati’s Paycor Stadium. This 2021 AFC Championship game rematch puts the two teams who fought it out to a Bengals 27-27 overtime win against each other once again, and when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes takes the field, he can expect to see a lot of what he saw against the Bengals’ defense before — especially in the second half and overtime.
In that second half and overtime, the Bengals did two things. They played more man coverage, and they threw more coverage drops from their defensive linemen. Overall in that game, per Sports Info Solutions, the Bengals rushed three or fewer defenders against Mahomes on 19 of Mahomes’ dropbacks. Mahomes completed eight of 15 passes for 74 yards, 35 air yards, no touchdowns, one interception, six pressures, four sacks, and a passer rating of 40.1. In the second half and overtime, the Bengals rushed three or fewer on 14 of Mahomes’ dropbacks. Mahomes completed four of 10 passes for 20 yards, one air yard, no touchdowns, that one interception, and a passer rating of… 8.3.
It was an absolute domination, and it presaged what Mahomes would see in 2022.
In an offseason podcast with Ollie Connolly of the Gridiron NFL Show, I hypothesized that Mahomes should be prepared to see a lot more of this. Which is exactly what has happened. Not that my insight rose to the level of genius — it’s a copycat league, and any hope of stopping the NFL’s most dangerous quarterback will be stolen en masse.
This season. Mahomes has by far the most dropbacks against three or fewer pass-rushers — 54, with Tom Brady placing second at 38. And in those 50 dropbacks, Mahomes has completed 31 of 50 passes for 465 yards, 233 air yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 87.5. He’s been a bit more efficient against it, but hardly explosive. Mahomes has attempted just four passes of 20 or more air yards against three or fewer pass-rushers, completing three for 93 yards, 76 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.7.
Mahomes said this week that he’s not thinking much about that AFC Championship game.
“Once the season ended and I wasn’t in the Super Bowl and I had to watch it from the couch in my house in Texas, I kind of just moved on knowing that you’ve got to keep getting better, keep kind of moving forward. And if you want to have success that next season, you can’t dwell on what happened the last season, you have to learn from it and just get better from it.”
Fair enough, but if Mahomes wants to avenge that loss, he should be wary of the Bengals’ ability to shut down his passing game by flooding the field with coverage, as opposed to going after him with pressure.
After all — and thanks to a large degree to the Bengals — he’s seen it all season long.
