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Christian D'Andrea

The Bears already broke Caleb Williams, Jets are a big dumb mess and 9 things we learned in Week 10

Sam Darnold Drake Maye Christian DAndrea Bryce Young NFL Russell Wilson George Pickens Justin Jefferson Jaguars Patriots

Week 10 was another chalky week for the NFL. Even this week’s upsets were reasonable.

The Pittsburgh Steelers coming off a bye? That’s eight straight wins for Mike Tomlin. An interim head coach making his debut in a rivalry game? That “we just fired our head coach” bounce is very real. It sunk the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Despite an underwhelming slate of games — you could have gone from the morning’s Munich game to Patriots-Bears to Eagles-Cowboys and never felt you were watching anything better than USFL action — we still wound up with plenty to learn. The Minnesota Vikings are regressing but the Jacksonville Jaguars were never gonna be the team to make them pay for that. The New York Jets bet on a 41-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles and got exactly what they should have expected. The Chicago Bears are doing Chicago Bears things, which threatens to tank another young quarterback in Illinois.

What stood out most from a busy slate? Let’s talk about it.

Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past couple weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.

1. Bryce Young has a (very modest) case to continue starting for the Carolina Panthers

Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

For the first time in his NFL career, Bryce Young has a winning streak. Granted, it came 27 games after he was drafted and in a pair of matchups against bad teams in which he threw for a combined 297 yards, but it still counts.

Does this mean Young is good? Well, no. There’s still a lot to be done before he’s fixable. But I broke down some of his biggest plays, good AND bad, to figure out what comes next for Carolina.

From Is Bryce Young finally showing signs of life?:

Here, Young helps his cause with a huge pickup on third-and-long late in the fourth quarter protecting a three-point lead. But while it shows up as a positive on the box score it’s not all encouraging.

Young floats this sideline route, not stepping all the way into this long toss thanks to pressure coming up the gut that forces him to jump backward. The low velocity allows Dane Belton to close the gap between him and Xavier Legette and nearly erase the gain.

That’s a conglomeration of the two concerns that followed him to the NFL — his size to play through static in the pocket and the arm strength to flick passes deep (or, in this case, deep-ish) to the sideline. But it worked, so it’s tough to nitpick too thoroughly.

2. How one field goal drive sold me on Drake Maye, franchise quarterback

David Banks-Imagn Images

Maye didn’t light up the stat sheet in the New England Patriots’ 19-3 win over the Chicago Bears. He threw for fewer than 200 yards and had as many interceptions (one) as touchdowns. Even so, he provided proof he could be the Patriots’ franchise quarterback with a handful of plays that didn’t show up in the box score.

From Why Drake Maye looks like the Patriots’ franchise quarterback, in three plays:

One drive showcased why Maye has a better chance to be Tom Brady’s eventual successor than Mac Jones did in New England. It all came down to three plays in a 54-yard field goal drive that staked the Patriots a 3-0 lead they wouldn’t give up.

First, a perfectly placed deep strike through a tight window to tight end Austin Hooper for 28 yards:

With his pocket shrinking, Maye fails to panic. With limited room to run, he trusts in his arm instead. He stands tall, sets his feet and delivers a perfect deep strike through tight coverage for a big gain.

Eight plays later, after Rhamondre Stevenson picked up fourth-and-short, Maye finds himself in trouble again. He escapes pressure only to wind up in more trouble. Tremaine Edmunds has him wrapped up for a sack except, nope!

Maye, outside the tackle box, flips a left-handed pass out of bounds. It’s an incompletion but a net gain of four yards by avoiding the tackle. Two plays later, he almost creates a third-and-six touchdown out of thin air. What looks like another throw away instead gets to K.J. Osborn with inches to spare in the end zone:

Osborn had stepped out of bounds before hauling in the catch, making it illegal touching and reducing Maye’s effort into a simple “incompletion.” But this drive showcased all the inherent qualities for which the Patriots are looking in a quarterback. He’s capable of finishing plays through contact. He can escape pressure and take the right risks downfield. He understands when to scuttle a play and how to maximize yardage behind a troublesome offensive line.

3. The Sam Darnold experiment is regressing to the mean

Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

Midway through the third quarter of Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sam Darnold had led four different drives of at least 40 yards against an overmatched defense. His Minnesota Vikings had three points.

How? Because we’re seeing a journeyman quarterback regress in real time.

Darnold’s 2024 rise was a trade off; he’d played well enough (and ridden his star wideouts) to make his turnover issues acceptable. But he’d thrown at least one interception in all but two of Minnesota’s games through Week 9. His 3.1 percent interception rate was a bottom 10 mark among starting quarterbacks, nestled between Mason Rudolph and, uh, Patrick Mahomes on the bad side of the statistical leaderboard.

Some of these were understandable; tipped balls that caromed into the air as a result of bad luck instead of poor placement. Indeed, that was the case on his first pick of the day:

But the fact remained Darnold’s emergence was possible because he was willing to take risks downfield; his 8.6 air yards per throw are one of the five highest in the NFL this season.

Like any gambler, Darnold’s found himself in a cold streak. On Sunday, he found pressure in the pocket and tossed up low percentage shots in hopes Justin Jefferson could bail him out. But not even Jefferson could help on throws like this:

Jefferson was the intended target of all three of Darnold’s picks, each of which came when Minnesota was at the Jaguars’ 30-yard line or better.

Fortunately for Darnold, none of this mattered because he was playing the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville became the first team in more than 15 years to force at least three turnovers and keep its opponent out of the end zone and still lose.

Still, it was another troubling performance in an autumn that’s been the backdrop to a few. In Weeks 1-4, Darnold’s average expected points added (EPA) per game was 2.5 — not great, but solid. He’d had an EPA of at least two points in three of those four games and each was a Vikings win.

In the five games since, Darnold’s average EPA is -1.5 per game. He’s cracked that 2.0 EPA mark only twice. On Sunday, the downfield passing that had elevated him became a detriment. He completed just two of 11 passes that traveled at least 14 yards downfield.

via nextgenstats.nfl.com

This is closer to the Darnold we can expect going forward; capable and flawed. The Vikings didn’t find a long term quarterback solution in the dustbin a la Geno Smith. They got a high value backup who can generate wins before the rest of the league catches wise to his game. He’s the younger, more viable version of late stage Joe Flacco.

There’s clearly value to that. Minnesota has a talented team and Darnold can lead it to postseason success. But he’s also liable to collapse upon himself like a dying star at an inopportune moment. This is the duality of Sam Darnold. The only difference is we’ve never seen the first half of that equation last as long as it has in 2024.

4. George Pickens is the perfect receiver for Russell Wilson’s moon balls

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

A high-arcing, wideout-stopping and occasional defensive-pass-interference creating deep ball has long been a part of Russell Wilson’s arsenal. While the Pittsburgh Steelers can’t match the depth or experience the Seattle Seahawks gave Wilson at wideout during his peak, they do have one ace in the hole. A young wideout who built his reputation on making tough catches near the sideline.

That’s George Pickens, whose production the past two seasons hinged heavily on his ability to contort his body for back shoulder throws from Kenny Pickett. Wilson brings a new challenge to the table — one Pickens has proven capable of answering in the past…

and on Sunday in a showdown between two of the NFL’s most surprising teams against the Washington Commanders.

Pickens’s greatest strength — aside possibly from the fact he can decimate cornerbacks when he truly cares about blocking — is an innate gymnastic ability to contort his body to get back to the ball. This is perfect for Wilson’s deep sideline heaves. He’s got one of the best when it comes to shedding coverage to go up and get it as well. Pickens is a talented wideout with the hands to secure the ball in a tight window while toe-tapping his way to a big gain.

In three games, Wilson has completed eight of 15 deep balls for the Steelers. In fact, it may be telling Wilson’s lone interception of the season on these throws came on a long shot to Pickens that was a line drive that led his young wideout too far downfield and into the crosshairs of safety Jeremy Chinn.

This all brings a new dimension to the Pittsburgh offense that hadn’t existed even in the waning days of the Ben Roethlisberger era. This floating island of magic didn’t solely land on Pickens. Mike Williams made his presence felt in his first game as a Steeler after being acquired before the trade deadline, hauling in a difficult over-the-shoulder catch to give Pittsburgh a late lead.

This all makes the Steelers’ 7-2 start more viable than the vaporware that accompanied rallies and quick postseason exits the last three seasons. Wilson has revived himself despite playing with a rebuilt offensive line and an unproven cadre of wideouts. Pickens has proven he’s worth whatever headaches he may create with passive-aggressive performances because very few people in the world possess the body control and concentration he does.

Pittsburgh isn’t going to be anyone’s easy out this January. Despite Jaylen Warren’s late red zone fumble, Wilson still rallied his team for a comeback win on the road against an opponent that was 7-2 coming into Week 10.

The question now is how he’ll fare against AFC North opponents; six of the Steelers’ final eight games are against division rivals. The other two are against the two teams from Super Bowl 57, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

5. The Chicago Bears are so poorly executed

Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

Caleb Williams has cooled off considerably after emerging as the thrilling young passer the Bears hoped he’d be back in October. After starting the season 4-2, Chicago came out of its bye and has lost three straight games in embarrassing fashion. A walk-off Hail Mary from the Washington Commanders begat a blowout loss to the Arizona Cardinals which manifested in Sunday’s new low; a 19-3 loss to the New England Patriots and their 29th-ranked defense.

The Bears have gone two games without a touchdown. By the time Chicago throws its next touchdown pass it will have been at least a month since the last one (October 13 vs. the Jaguars). This was not the result of getting baffled by a team with brilliant coaching and better athletes. The Patriots showcased exactly what they wanted to do. The Bears were either unwilling or uninterested in stopping it.

Williams got devoured by a pass rush whose 29.7 percent pressure rate was sixth-worst in the NFL. He’s been sacked 15 times the last two games. D’Andre Swift, signed to a three-year, $24 million contract this offseason, has run the ball 32 times for only 110 yards the last two games — an inefficient 3.4 yards per carry.

There are several factors at play here, from Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron failing to exploit any advantages to Williams’ own inability to throw accurate passes from the pocket. None are bigger than a group of blockers unable to handle basic assignments. Watch as Keion White embarrasses Larry Borom, who is playing in place of injured starter Braxton Jones at left tackle:

No quarterback would be able to thrive behind a line that fails to generate space for anything, let alone a rookie playing in a cast iron pan liberally seasoned with the gristle of failed young quarterbacks who came before him. Williams has the talent to make this all work. We know this because he recorded a 122.8 passer rating with seven touchdown passes, one interception and more than 100 rushing yards in the three-game win streak that stretched from Weeks 4 to 6.

Caleb Williams isn’t failing as a rookie because he can’t work within a gameplan or because he paints his fingernails. He is failing because he is a Chicago Bear and this is what the Chicago Bears do to their promising young quarterbacks. They trap them in a cycle of hype that displays what they’re capable of at their peak, then spend weeks at a time rappelling away from it.

Saving Williams now comes down to getting rid of Eberflus and finding someone who can maximize his talent. Given what we know about Chicago, it’s tough to have much faith in that process.

6. BAKER MAYFIELD

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

This was not enough to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to victory as a touchdown underdog at home against the San Francisco 49ers. It was still one of Sunday’s most remarkable plays.

Mayfield isn’t shrugging off a scrub to convert a vital fourth down. That’s four-time Pro Bowler Nick Bosa he’s holding off with one arm while using the other to thread the needle to a not-open-but-who-cares Rachaad White.

Tampa Bay’s game-winning drive stalled out inside the San Francisco 10 and left enough time on the clock for a Niners walk-off field goal. Mayfield’s performance played a key role here; he only attempted five passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield and completed one of those. But with the game on the line he summoned the kind of strength only mothers can find whilst lifting a car off their pinned child.

There’s no stat for that, but it’s the kind of play that should make the Buccaneers happy they retained their veteran quarterback after his breakthrough 2023.

7. No one fears the Dallas Cowboys, which makes it difficult to trust the Philadelphia Eagles

Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Sunday’s rivalry showdown between the two teams that have alternated seven of the last eight NFC East championships was not a serious football game. This was partially because injuries forced Cooper Rush into the starting lineup:

There was more to it than simply a backup quarterback playing like one. Rush’s fumbles gave his teammates the chance to Keystone Kops their way to an Eagles possession.

Dallas gave up just under five yards per carry despite the Eagles giving a handful of garbage time totes to rookie running back Will Shipley. Ezekiel Elliott fumbled in the red zone. CeeDee Lamb had 10 targets and 21 receiving yards, in part because he couldn’t see a potential touchdown because his owner built a stadium that stares directly into the eyes of god when the sun’s going down in Texas.

That’s roughly what we expected from the Cowboys. Despite a 28-point win, the Eagles didn’t look like the world beaters the score suggests. Jalen Hurts broke a four-game turnover-free streak by giving the ball away twice — once in the shadow of his own end zone and once in Dallas’s.

There were plenty of good moments as well. Saquon Barkley continued to be a dynamic runner capable of creating the third-and-short situations from which Philly thrives. The Tush Push continues to be viable in short yardage situations. Hurts proved once again A.J. Brown is a contested catch cheat code.

Still, the Eagles’ five-game win streak only features one victory to hang their hat on — a 37-17 rolling of the Cincinnati Bengals, who are currently 4-6. Philadelphia is cruising toward a playoff berth. Whether that extends to a long run like in 2022 or ends with a loud crash like in 2023 depends on if the sloppiness we saw in Week 10 was just a contagion escaping the Cowboys or if the Eagles flaws are merely waiting for the right time to become fatal.

8. Aaron Rodgers sputtered and collapsed against the league’s 26th-ranked defense

Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Touchdowns scored Sunday:

  • Former New York Jet Mike Williams: 1
  • Current New York Jets (all): 0

Aaron Rodgers couldn’t find the end zone once against the Arizona Cardinals, a team with one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

The once vaunted Jets’ defense sacked Kyler Murray only once all afternoon, giving him the space to set a career high for completion rate while throwing only two incompletions in 24 attempts. Everything collapsed at once and New York, coming off nine days of rest and a rousing win over the Houston Texans in Week 9, proceeded to vomit down its own chest for 60 straight minutes in Arizona.

None of this was supposed to happen. Rodgers was supposed to be a stabilizing force even if he was playing at a diminished state. Instead, he averaged 3.4 yards per dropback. Zach Wilson had three games last season where he was even worse than that, so this nadir isn’t quite as bad as 2023’s. But that’s comparing eating centipedes to millipedes; both are pretty dang gross!

Even if the 41-year-old quarterback struggled, an elite defense was supposed to provide the ballast to keep things level long enough for Rodgers to sort himself out. Instead, this group got destroyed by Murray weeks after the new Call of Duty was released back in October. He completed his last 17 passes of the day — a streak the NFL’s Next Gen Stats gave a one in 408 probability of happening.

At 3-7, the Jets have the same record as the rebuilding Patriots. They’re only two games out of the final Wild Card spot but also one loss away from locking in a losing record for the ninth straight season. Rodgers was supposed to fix this; instead, he completed exactly one pass that traveled more than 10 yards downfield against one of the league’s least efficient secondaries.

via nextgenstats.nfl.com

This is, plain and simple, a disaster for the Jets.

9. Fantasy team you absolutely didn’t want to field in Week 10

Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
  • QB: Caleb Williams, Bears (120 passing yards, 15 rushing yards, NINE sacks, one fumble lost, 5.0 fantasy points)
  • RB: Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (four rushing yards, 0.4 fantasy points)
  • RB: Javonte Williams, Broncos (one rushing yard, two catches, six receiving yards, 2.7 fantasy points)
  • WR: Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (one catch, 11 yards, 2.1 fantasy points)
  • WR: Diontae Johnson, Ravens (one catch, six yards, 1.6 fantasy points)
  • WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (one catch, 12 yards, 3.2 fantasy points)
  • TE: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (two catches, 24 yards, 4.4 fantasy points)
  • D/ST: New York Jets (one sack, 31 points allowed, -3.0 fantasy points)

Total: 16.4 points

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