AbbVie stock has slumped 9% off its record high in March and is facing increasingly steep competition for its biggest moneymaker, inflammation drug Humira.
According to data collected by Iqvia, the number of prescriptions of Novartis' Hyrimoz has "stepped up dramatically in recent weeks," Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in a report. Hyrimoz is a biosimilar, a biologic copy of Humira. It's one of several that launched last year in the U.S.
New prescriptions of Hyrimoz climbed 3% in the last week of March. In the weeks ended April 5 and April 12, new prescriptions surged 33% and 39%, respectively. Total prescriptions increased 1%, 12% and 16% in those same weeks.
That coincided with the removal of branded Humira from CVS' list of preferred drugs for reimbursement on April 1. The company said in January it would begin recommending biosimilar versions instead.
AbbVie stock rose 1.1% to 166.42. Shares are forming a flat base with a buy point at 182.89, MarketSurge.com shows.
AbbVie Stock Slides Ahead Of Earnings
AbbVie is due to report its first-quarter earnings next Friday. Analysts expect Humira sales to tumble 37% to $2.22 billion, according to FactSet. That's relatively in line with recent declines. Over the past four quarters, sales of Humira have fallen off between 25% and 41%.
For the year, AbbVie said in February it expects $9.6 billion in global Humira sales. That's a decline of 33%. U.S. sales are projected to fall 36% to $7.8 billion.
Leerink's Risinger kept his market perform rating on AbbVie stock. Formulary positions for biosimilar and branded Humira in 2025 will be key.
Last year, AbbVie executed well against payer contracting, Chief Commercial Officer Jeffrey Stewart said during a recent Cowen conference.
"We're going to go through another round of payer contracting later this year," he said. "We're going to take this year to study and understand those dynamics and also then, I think, we'll be in a position in the 2025 time frame to start to articulate what that looks like."
Will Others Follow CVS' Lead?
Representatives of AbbVie couldn't immediately comment to Investor's Business Daily.
Risinger, the Leerink analyst, said it's hard to predict how many payers will follow CVS' lead.
AbbVie is also selling a high concentration version of Humira with CVS-owned company Cordavis. But there were only two prescriptions of that formulation reported in the past month, he said. He expects that product to ramp in the second quarter.
AbbVie stock dropped below its 50-day moving average earlier this month, falling alongside pharma stocks. Shares remain above their 200-day line, however.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
