Everyone's got a theory on why Rory McIlroy still hasn't won The Masters, and plenty of those have solutions for how he can finally slip on the Green Jacket, but there's one glaring stat staring us in the face that he simply has to fix if he's to complete the career Grand Slam.
The Northern Irishman should have already won all four of golf's Majors and The Masters should've been the first back in 2011 but for that infamous Sunday meltdown - and he's had no joy at Augusta National ever since.
All the pressure that comes with completing the Grand Slam is part of the problem, and McIlroy has vowed to try and control his emotions this time around as he looks to end a decade of Major drought.
Augusta is a special place with special problems to solve, and there are well-known keys to victory there - but among all the finer points and minor details, there's one big disparity in McIlroy's scoring at The Masters that sticks out like a sore thumb.
We looked at all of McIlroy’s Masters scorecards and found some fascinating data in among them, but there's also a stat pointed out by data guru Justin Ray on X about the four-time Major champion's struggles on the par 3s and par 4s.
Now, along with being a second shot golf course and "knowing where to miss" at Augusta - taking advantage of the par 5s is also a key to winning that Green Jacket.
That's part of the puzzle that McIlroy has had no problem with whatsoever as he's taken them apart over the years and is a cumulative 94 under par on the longer holes over his Masters career.
On the shorter holes though, he's struggled and is +67 on par 3 and par 4 holes, and that huge contrast goes some way to explaining just where his challenge has always faltered.
Everyone eats on the par 5s at Augusta, but it's a truly staggering disparity for Rory.In his career, he's 94-under on the par 5s at #TheMasters and +67 on par 3s and 4s. https://t.co/agj9GaY8IvApril 9, 2024
Now, it's the norm to be better on the par 5s than the rest, and of the last 15 winners of The Masters only Danny Willett finished the tournament with a better score on the shorter holes than the par 5s.
But having that 161-shot difference between them over his Masters career is huge for McIlroy, and the stats show that when he can sort himself out on the shorter holes then he'll go close.
When he finished second in 2022 McIlroy was just +1 for the par 3 and par 4 holes during the tournament, and his previous best before that in 2020 he was actually four under for the shorter holes when finishing fifth.
Basically, with his elite driving and long game, the par 5s will take care of themselves, but it's those shorter holes that when McIlroy takes care of them he'll be right at the sharp end of the leaderboard.
There are ways and means for all this and hitting greens and making putts all come into the equation, but it's a pretty eye-catching stat that needs addressing if McIlroy is to finally end that long wait.
