The honeymoon for Labour is over, say the massed ranks of the rightwing media. What honeymoon was that? It seems to have been over since 5 July. Despite their own readers voting for that Labour victory in large numbers, the majority of media outlets paused not a moment to reconsider whether their rantings were out of kilter with the country, and their own subscribers.
Polling before the election, Redfield and Wilton found, no surprise, huge Labour leads among Guardian, Observer and Mirror readers, but also large proportions backing Labour among readers of the Daily Express (41% to the Tories’ 27%), the Daily Mail (37% to 24%), the Telegraph (34% to 21%) and the Times (42% to 23%), with the Sun, FT and Economist much the same. Yet their commentators seem quite unabashed. Telegraph columnists have been apocalyptic: “It’s over for Britain, crushed by Labour’s cruel war on the middle classes”.
As in those age-old tales of English tourists talking to foreigners, they just shout louder, remounting their hobbyhorses, disregarding majority views, like the old left used to. This media cadre, disconnected from the country, deceive the Tory party in its leadership election. Net zero antagonists ignore the 77% of voters who worry about climate change. The Tory press hammers Kamala Harris, yet only 21% of the UK public backs Trump. Hysteria about a “war on the middle class” (a few top earners fearing a capital gains rise) ignores recent public opinion polling showing that 40% support more spending on public services, even if it means that they personally pay more tax; only 27% want tax cuts.
The battle over blame for the £22bn black hole in this year’s accounts risks being seen as Westminster game-playing. But when the head of the Office for Budget Responsibility launches a review into the honesty of the last budget’s figures, after previously complaining they provided “almost no detail” and that the Conservative government had “not even bothered to write down their departmental spending plans”, history is likely to be on Rachel Reeves’s side. Ipsos finds that two-thirds of people think Labour found a worse economic situation than expected. Whether Labour knew in advance, blame for the state of public finances is attributed mainly to the Tories by 37% of people and to Labour by 29%.
Old-timers who were around in 1997 recall Tony Blair’s long period of grace in his first year. Since then the savagery of social media has infected politics, so erstwhile serious Tory media outlets seem minimally interested in the facts and dilemmas of any issue. Everything is milked for political weaponry, encouraging distrust in politicians: nothing works, nothing can be done, governments are useless. Deny it as they might, broadcasters often follow those agendas from the Mail front pages. How did that nonsense about moving a portrait of Margaret Thatcher (commissioned, incidentally, by Gordon Brown) make it screaming on to front pages day after day, and even into the BBC news?
That’s the cynicism Keir Starmer pledged to reverse: can it be done against tsunamis of hostility? People want hope, say those doing all they can to demolish it, criticising Starmer’s unrosy rose garden speech for joylessness. But Boris Johnson-style boosterism would have been absurd with grim deficiencies in every austerity-struck department. The only hope comes from loudly underpromising, and eventually overdelivering.
Relentless onslaughts cause slippage in the polls, and Labour support was always fragile with a low turnout win on just 34%. These are not happy times. Labour insiders are braced for things not getting better for a while. Keeping up their spirits, they recall that even with her press claque, Thatcher was phenomenally unpopular in her first years – and six times more voters still expect Labour to win the next election than to lose.
What Labour notably lacks is enough wholehearted backers for policies that deserve more cheerleaders: on green power, GB Energy, ending North Sea oil, investing in renewables – defenders should speak louder. The TUC congress should cheer for the most radical pro-worker, pro-union programme in decades, against a Tory hailstorm claiming pay deals for union paymasters. Or will only the usual grumblers make the news? Business leaders relieved to have steady Starmer and Reeves at the helm need to speak up. Nervous Labour MPs whisper anxious advice when they should be galvanising support for good policies.
The budget looks set to take from the wealthiest and trim their tax reliefs, while protecting vulnerable people and public services. In the great noise – a Sunday Telegraph headline: “Top earners already fleeing Britain over tax raids” – that principle needs defending. Means-testing the winter fuel allowance was unpopular, though it is right to take it from well-off pensioners (and essential pension credit reaches all non-claimers.) Where are reminders that the far more generous triple-lock this year delivered £900 a pensioner, destined to keep on rising?
Rekindling Labour’s pledge to abolish child poverty, expect the two-child benefit cap to be scrapped. But that won’t be popular either. Public opinion is 60% against, including 50% of Labour voters, hearing false stories of “babies on benefits”. Reeves would abolish it out of bravery not populism, deserving vocal support from NGOs.
So there was no honeymoon, just inadequate recognition for Starmer’s rapid competence in stamping out the riots. “Two-tier policing” accusations amount to subtle backing for imprisoned racist rioters. Endless attempts to destabilise No 10 with malevolent Sue Gray rivalry stories are spread by Tories fearing her efficacy. Government contends not with a 24-hour news cycle, but a 24-second social media spit of spite. They sound solid in telling themselves to hold steady, keep their nerve, ignore the flak, do what must be done. Trust voters to sense these serious people know what they’re doing, and eventually things will get better.
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
On Tuesday 24 September, 7.30pm-9pm (BST), join Polly Toynbee, David Walker and Heather Stewart as they explore the state of the nation – and discuss how Labour can progress from here. Book tickets here or at theguardian.live
