Jacksonville Jaguars “annual generational” quarterback Trevor Lawrence has finally made the clear jump from Year 1 to Year 2. Last Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, Lawrence went 29-of-37 (78.4%) for 321 yards and three touchdowns, ending with a 129.8 quarterback rating.
Lawrence and the Jaguars were down 19-10 in the start of the fourth quarter and with two minutes left in the game, down by seven, Lawrence drove down the field, ending the Ravens’ four-game win streak.
“Sometimes it’s the difference between what we see in Trevor and sometimes what the fan might see or what y’all might see,” head coach Doug Pederson said after the game. “This guy throws an incredibly good football and he’s smart and he sees the field, and he can make all the throws. You’re just seeing that. You’re just seeing that execution with him and that maturity with him.”
Lawrence was playing lights out. He delivered accurate throws in tight windows and exhibited split-second decision making while putting all his trust in his receivers downfield.
Let’s go to the All-22 and telestrate how he was able to have game of his career against the Ravens’ pass defense.
Trevor Lawrence: Franchise QB@Jaguars | @InsideTheNFL pic.twitter.com/kF2RrhTBUi
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 28, 2022
Throwing with anticipation.
In the month of November, Lawrence had a 77% completion rate, going 82-of-107 for 805 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Rookie/2nd year QBs since 1970 to have 3 straight games with 30+ passes and a 100+ passer rating:
Ken O'Brien
Kurt Warner
Carson Palmer
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoaand now, Trevor Lawrence
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) November 28, 2022
Over these last three games Lawrence seems like everything has finally clicked. His anticipation is something that has showed the most on film.
It certainly showed on the first touchdown of the game. Backup running back Jamycal Hasty is lined up out wide (bottom of screen). The Ravens are in a 4-2-5 cover 4 defense.
Againat this type of defense, it’s critical that Lawrence quickly finds the void in the Ravens zone coverage. Lawrence was forced to let go of this ball well before the running back crosses his defenders face. Yet, Lawrence put it right on his chest.
This throw defines anticipation.
On a third-and-3 in the second quarter, Lawrence sees that the Ravens are bringing pressure. Usually with a blitz, the defense will go to man coverage. With the Jaguars in a 3×1 formation, the receiver on the single side runs his defender into the middle of the field, leaving the short side of the field wide open for the running back to run a hot route from the backfield.
Lawrence was getting the ball out fast, and with pinpoint accuracy.
In the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, Lawrence delivered his most impressive anticipation throw yet. On fourth-and-5 with 1:38 on the clock, Lawrence senses pressure and somehow delivers a perfect ball to Marvin Jones up the sideline.
Lawrence is forced once again to get rid of it before his receiver made his break towards the sideline. Its impressive that he was able to put enough velocity on this pass because he was throwing off his back foot to avoid the free rusher coming through the B-gap. If we keep in mind that the game was on the line, this was the throw that removed any doubt that the Jaguars were going to win this game.
With a quick passing game, anticipation is critical. These throws can only be done with confidence and trust in the play calling. This is what the Jaguars have been working up to all season.
According to Next Gen Stats, last week Lawrence had the fastest ‘time to throw’ in the NFL (2.3 seconds) and he’s averaged third quickest (2.55 seconds) for the entire season.
Getting the ball out quick has been a part of Pederson’s game plan. The Jaguars have run less, and less play action bootlegs as Lawrence has become more comfortable with the offense.
According to SIS, in the first eight weeks of the regular season Lawrence was under center on 16% of drop backs, over the last four weeks, that has dropped to 5%.
Now let’s move on to how the quick passing game was a perfect matchup against the Ravens pass defense.
Executing the right offensive game plan.
The Ravens are the second-most passed on defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to average 37.3 pass attempts per game. With Travis Etienne leaving the game early with a foot injury, it was imperative that Lawrence understood coverages pre-snap to keep the game in reach through the air.
Just because teams like to pass on the Ravens, doesn’t mean they are successful. According to footballoutsiders, the Ravens have the eighth best passing DVOA (-5.3) in the league.
But what helped the Jaguars in their matchup was their personnel. According to SIS, the Ravens are ranked 27th in yards allowed against 11 personnel; and the Jaguars have the sixth most 11 personnel attempts in the league.
The Jaguars did exactly that on Sunday, they ran a whopping 79% of plays from 11 personnel with an 80% pass rate, per NFLfastR.
The fourth quarter is when a lot of the magic happened within the Jaguars offense. They did a great job creating mismatches by moving defenders and Lawrence stayed poise in the pocket.
The pre-snap motion let Lawrence know that the defense was in man coverage. With the mesh concept and both the running back and Christian Kirk in the flat, this spread the Ravens defense thin.
With a blitzer coming through the A-gap and the Ravens outside linebacker (no. 99) dropping into coverage to bump Zay Jones, he was then left open over the middle.
Lawrence was staying patient and trusting his eyes. Even when the defense was in disguised coverage, Lawrence didn’t waiver.
On a fourth-and-8 in the fourth quarter the Ravens come out in what looks like three defenders deep, but it’s actually a cover 4 with the strong safety (no. 36) dropping into the middle picking up the deep crosser. This leaves a void in the quarters zone coverage.
Lawrence made some key throws in those voids throughout the game.
Working the double moves.
Even with Lawrence playing the best game of his NFL career, his receivers deserve a ton of credit, especially Zay Jones who went 11-for-14 for 145 receiver yards.
Lawrence took what the defense gave him and with the Ravens in a Cover-4 shell majority of the game, it was up to this receiver to get open underneath.
Early in the fourth quarter, Evan Engram and Tim Jones both run a double move at the bottom of the screen.
Even with Engram open over the middle, Trevor does a great job scanning the field, stepping up in the pocket and firing a bullet in the middle to Jamaal Agnew.
This wasn’t the first time that we’ve seen this play. Earlier in the year against the New York Giants, Engram runs this same exact route up the seam and Lawrence hits him for a huge gain.
It was time to go back to this play, but this time the Jaguars were going with their hot hand, Z. Jones.
It was third-and-6 with only :36 seconds left in the game.
The Jaguars come out in a 3×1 look with Jones to the outside. He doesnt have outside leverage so in order to freeze his defender, he runs a perfect double move while keeping his stride to gain a ton of separation leaving it up to Lawrence to do what he’s been doing all game. That’s to deliver a perfect ball between two defenders 29 yards downfield.
Lawrence took the Jaguars on a 10-play, 75-yard drive that ended with a fade route touchdown to Marvin Jones in the back corner of the endzone. The offense convinced Pederson to go for two, and Lawrence did not disappoint.
Lawrence is living up to his potential.
Here’s what Pederson had to say about Lawrence’s confidence after the final drive, “I think it’s been eight times this season that we’ve been in that situation. It’s just good for the whole team to be able to finish the game. We talked about that during the week, and we talk about that all the time, but just learning how to finish and learning how to win a game just goes a long way for everybody’s confidence.”
There shouldn’t be any doubt that Lawrence is finally playing to the expectations he was given coming out of college.
With the Jaguars tied for second place in the AFC South and they have yet to play the first place Tennessee Titans. It’s not completely out of reach for them to try and make a run for the playoffs.
If Lawrence continues to maintain this kind of production for the remainder of the season, there is no telling what kind of run the Jaguars can end up making by season’s end… and certainly in 2023.
