Thanksgiving and Black Friday limit the number of games to choose from for the remainder of Week 12, but there are some prop bets to like. This week’s picks include a quarterback going Under, a quarterback going Over, two young wide receivers making a bigger impact than projected, and one of the most prolific scorers of his generation recording a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-120)
Kirk has been frustrating, because he has been inconsistent from week to week, but there has been a rhythm to his inconsistency. He has been over this number five times and under five times but hasn’t hit the Over or Under twice in a row since early October. His receiving yards over his last seven games have been 84, 78, 49, 90, 46, 104 and 48. He follows up a big week with a dud and then bounces back. Against the Houston Texans, he should see another bounce-back week as a focus of the offense.
4
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr UNDER 239.5 passing yards (-115)
Carr has been under this number in his last two games and six of his last nine. He’s going up against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense ranked No. 8 in the league (200.4 yards a game). The Falcons want to run the ball a lot, and the Saints are in the bottom half of the league stopping the run. That will likely reduce the number of opportunities Carr will get to do damage through the air. Despite not being a huge number, it’s big enough to make it difficult to get past.
3
Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
Addison has been a consistent fantasy performer as a rookie. Of his first 11 NFL games, he has caught four or more passes in seven of them. He has gone over this number in all seven of those games. However, what stands out here is that he has topped this number in all five of his home games. Throw in that he has surpassed this number in four of the last five games, all signs point to a solid outing. The Chicago Bears pass defense gives up a lot of big plays, and the Vikings will find Addison enough times to get past this number.
2
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry scores a touchdown (-120)
Henry is a different player at home this season. The Titans have played just four home games, and Henry has never rushed for fewer than 80 yards in any of them – his top four rushing days of the season. He has scored a touchdown in three of those four games. Going up against a Carolina Panthers defense that is allowing 130 ground yards a game and 16 rushing touchdowns, Henry should be front and center all day long, especially at the goal line.
1
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
Jackson has been under this number in seven of 11 games this season, but he is playing against the Los Angeles Chargers – the league’s worst pass defense by a large margin (21 yards a game more than No. 31). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 316 yards a game against the Chargers. While the Ravens are a run-first team, they are adept at exploiting an opponent’s weakness. This weakness is glaring. While Jackson likely won’t hit 316 yards, he needs only 233 to beat this prop.
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