As the hours tick down to the final game of the season, two of the preseason favorites to meet in the Super Bowl will happen when, for the second time in five years, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet for the championship.
For the biggest game of the year, this week’s five prop bets include the biggest stars in the game – two players to go Over their projections, both quarterbacks going Under their stat forecast, and the most prolific postseason scorer of his generation doing it again.
5
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kittle isn’t a consistent yardage machine, but he has proved to be one of the most dangerous downfield receivers in the game, especially during the playoffs. In his last five postseason games, his longest reception has been 32, 28, 23, 31 and 22 yards. He has been Brock Purdy‘s primary deep threat down the stretch this season, catching a pass of 28 yards or more in six of his last seven games. With a modest number of 51 yards to reach, if he has one catch like he has done so often over the last two months, he won’t need much the rest of the game to top this number.
4
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 260.5 passing yards (-115)
Mahomes hasn’t needed monster passing yardage for the Chiefs to win games in the postseason. Over the last two seasons (without deep threat Tyreek Hill), Mahomes has hit Under this number in four of six games and had 262 yards in one of the two that went Over. In his last three postseason games away from Kansas City, his passing yardage totals have been 182, 215 and 241 yards – all in wins. These aren’t the Chiefs of previous vintage. They win games with defense and a balanced offense that runs almost as much as it passes. In three postseason games this year, Mahomes has thrown 103 passes, while the Chiefs have run 90 times. He will need to have a couple of huge splash plays or throw 35-40 passes to top this number.
3
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 248.5 passing yards (-115)
It’s not that Purdy isn’t capable of topping this number, but it will require the 49ers to be behind and forced to pass, which is what happened when they fell behind to Green Bay and Detroit in their two playoff wins. Appearing in his first Super Bowl, the 49ers will look to take the pressure off Purdy by establishing the run early with Christian McCaffrey and, if it’s successful, they won’t go away from it. Purdy hasn’t had more than 25 completions in any of his 18 games this season and has 20 or fewer in 11 of them. The Chiefs defense is likely going to limit his ability to throw deep downfield. He’ll need a lot of completions to top this number, and that just isn’t his M.O.
2
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a touchdown (-115)
Over the past six years, nobody has approached Kelce’s ability to score postseason touchdowns. In his last 16 games, he has tallied 18 TDs with at least one in 13 of those games (81%). His scoring has been even more prolific over the last three years, recording 10 touchdowns in nine games with at least one score in eight of those nine games (89%). Typically, a bet is designed to get equal money on both sides, but Kelce has been in a league of his own when it comes to this particular prop bet and sends bettors to the pay window too consistently to ignore – even though every defense knows it’s coming in the red zone.
1
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)
The 49ers have been able to ride McCaffrey when needed to dominate time of possession and win games. This season, McCaffrey has had 20 or more touches in 11 games. With a championship at stake, there is no reason to hold him back. The Chiefs’ weakness on defense is stopping the run – everyone they faced in the regular season combined to average 4.5 yards a carry (and 4.8 yards in the postseason). Going up against the best running back in the league? If Run CMC is anywhere close to averaging 4.5 yards a carry, he will end up with 20 or more carries out of necessity. If the Niners are to win the title, they’ll need a huge performance from McCaffrey and it will likely end up with him winning the game MVP.
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