This week’s picks feature three of the game’s elite receivers making on-field statements, an injured quarterback who has too big a number for passing yards, and a young running back returning overseas to the city where he had the greatest game of his career.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne scores a touchdown (-105)
The Jaguars have played in London nine times over the last 10 years. It’s become like a home game. Etienne has only played in England once, but it was epic. He rushed 24 times for a career-high 156 yards and scored a touchdown against the Denver Broncos. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson will likely get the headlines before the game. Etienne is the centerpiece of Jacksonville’s offense (20 touches a game) and will get scoring opportunities.
4
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 82.5 receiving yards (-115)
Diggs and Josh Allen have a volatile relationship, but they come together when their team needs it most. Last year in a 34-31 playoff shootout with the Miami Dolphins, Allen needed Diggs if the Bills wanted to win. Diggs caught seven passes for 114 yards. It’s only Week 4, but the Bills need a home win against the 3-0 Dolphins to avoid a landscape change in the AFC East. Diggs should catch a slew of passes to blow past this number.
3
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow UNDER 262.5 passing yards (-115)
Too many signs point to Burrow’s O/U number to be too high. His calf injury appears more serious than the Bengals are letting on. He hasn’t hit this number all season. He’s averaging 4.65 yards per attempt. He never had a single game with an average that low before this year. Throw in that the Bengals are going up against a Tennessee Titans team ideally running 40 times and keeping Cincinnati’s offense on the sidelines. Those are too many indicators that this should hit Under.
2
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jalen Hurts has a history of placating his two star receivers. If one of them has a huge week, the other one more often than not gets the higher target share the next week. In their Week 2 win, A.J. Brown was animated on the sidelines for not getting enough targets. In Week 3, Hurts rectified that. Now it’s time for Smith to be the primary receiving target and this number could be way too low in comparison to Smith’s final number.
1
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 99.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jefferson is off to an even more impressive start for receiving yards than Cooper Kupp in 2021 – Kupp had fewer than 92 receiving yards in just one game that year. Jefferson needs to get 100 yards to send you to the pay window. In three games this season, he has averaged beating this number by 50 yards – with weekly totals of 150, 159 and 149. Keep making this bet until the O/U gets a lot closer to his weekly average.
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