As the NFL reduces the number of teams that can win the Super Bowl from eight down to four, this week’s prop bet picks touch all four games.
The picks include a rookie sensation putting up numbers (but not a “W”), one San Francisco 49ers receiver scoring a touchdown while another underachieves (again), a veteran running back helping control a game, and a young running back taking his talents on the road in the playoffs for the first time.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud OVER 239.5 passing yards (-115)
In his NFL debut against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, Stroud threw for 242 yards. He would top that number in 11 of his next 15 starts, including 274 yards on just 21 pass attempts last week against the Cleveland Browns. There appears to be too high a likelihood the rested, veteran-laden Ravens are going to win and potentially win big. In that case, the Texans are going to throw a lot. If Houston keeps it close, their best weapon is Stroud and the passing attack. He may double the number of throws from last week, and this number is way too low if that happens. With poor weather expected, a lot of the passes will be short, but they all add up.
4
San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk scores a touchdown (+125)
Aiyuk has been the big-play deep threat in the 49ers offense and had three games with more than 110 yards in his last five. He tied for the team lead with seven touchdown receptions, and the Green Bay Packers aren’t ready for all the weapons coming their way. Given how George Kittle disappears in the play calling in the postseason (see below), Aiyuk is likely to get more opportunities to make plays, especially over the top. All he needs is one play to hit, and the young Packers take risks defensively that he can expose.
3
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle UNDER 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
In nine career postseason games, Kittle has caught just 25 passes for 343 yards. Those are numbers difficult to ignore – an average of less than three catches for 38 yards. He should have a higher O/U number, but those who set the number for people to wager on know what they’re doing. He has hit Under this number in eight of nine career postseason games. When you have a history that hits 89% of the time, it’s hard to ignore. If the Niners get up big early, it will be the running game that lights things up, not guys like Kittle.
2
Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-120)
In their win against the Los Angeles Rams last week, the teams combined for 110 snaps – the lowest total of the week. Montgomery came out of the gate strong in his arrival in Detroit, rushing 88 times in his first four games. Then he was injured against Tampa Bay in Week 6 and had to work his way back into being the main man. The Lions are known for taking risks, but to get one step away from the Super Bowl, they’re going to try to control the game on the ground. In the first half, it may be a 50/50 split between Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In the second half? Dan Campbell will lean on Montgomery to seal the deal. He figures to have a minimum of 15 carries, which should be enough.
1
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Chiefs are coming to the realization of who they are in 2024. During their impressive five-year run atop the AFC, they had a potent offense and a sketchy defense that required the offense to keep hitting the gas. Now, they have one of the more imposing defenses, and the offense is being asked not to mess things up. Pacheco has 15 or more carries in six of his last seven games, including 24 carries for 89 yards last week against Miami. As the Chiefs make their first postseason road trip in Patrick Mahomes’ career, it’s going to require a healthy dose of Pacheco if they intend to come away with a win. He seems guaranteed for 15 carries (if not more), and 15 should be enough to hit this number.
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